Little has changed in Bosnia. One of my colleagues, a journalist, complains: since 2006, since the failure of the constitutional reform, he can write the same article, because names, deeds, problems - do not change. The West can’t do anything with the cunning of local politicians who are held in power thanks to regular strikes in the nationalist alarm.
Elections, at first glance, little changed. On October 7, they were held simultaneously at the state level of Bosnia and Herzegovina and within two BiH subjects: the Bosnia and Herzegovina Federation populated by Bosniaks and Croats and the Serbian Republic of Serb. They chose three members of the Presidium and the composition of the Lower House of Parliament of BiH, as well as the heads of two subjects and their respective legislative bodies.
The main difference from the previous scenarios was that Milorad Dodik, the current President of Republika Srpska, who is under American sanctions, was chosen by the Serbs as one of the three Presidium members, defeating the current Mladen Ivanic. The Dodik Party, the Union of Independent Social Democrats, also retained control over the legislative body of the Republika Srpska. In other words, the vote markedly strengthened the position of the nationalist leader, who was openly friendly with Russia and repeatedly threatened to remove the Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina, by announcing a referendum. But his decision to take a seat on the presidium - the state body of Bosnia and Herzegovina - instead of remaining in position in the Republika Srpska, may mean that he is not so sincere in his desire to split the country.
Of course, when moving from Banja Luka to Sarajevo, Dodik will not cause everyone less trouble.. With the help of habitual appeals to nationalism, he will avoid corruption and abuse of power in the Serbian half of Bosnia..
Shefik Dzhaferovich election to the presidency of the Bosnian - simple continuity. Dzaferovic replaces Bakir Izetbegovic, the leader of the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), founded by his father, the late President Aliya Izetbegovic. According to preliminary data, the SDA won the elections to the parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In addition, it showed good results in the elections to the legislature of the Federation.
The race for the Croatian seat on the podium turned out to be a surprise. Zeljko Komsic defeated Dragan Kovic, leader of the main Croatian party, Croatian Democratic Union (CDU). Komsic’s victory will surely not go quietly, as the PDS activists will most likely blame the ethnic Bosniacs who voted for Komsic, an ethnic Croat, and thus, in fact, stole this place.. Thus, Komsic chose this place in 2006.
What has changed this time: Kovich deepened contacts with Russia. Perhaps he will try to resort to the help of Moscow, demanding greater rights for ethnic Croats - a strategy that should level his defeat.. Relying on him and Serbian leader Dodik, Russia can already count on two allies in the Bosnian political arena..
In short, two differently oriented ethnic poles continue to dominate Bosnian politics - one headed by Serb Dodik and the second concentrated around Muslim Bosniaks and the SDA. Each side is counting on external support - the Serbs to Russia, the traffic rules on Turkey. Bosnia will certainly keep from splitting, despite all fears of the coming war. However, it will remain extremely fragmented and most likely deaf to the attempts of the United States and the European Union to initiate pro-Western reforms..
In addition, there are suspicions that the game was not fair. The Central Election Commission has already annulled over 452,000 ballots at all levels (state and local). This is about 6-8% of the vote on each vote, where the entire electorate is one and a half million people. The debate will most likely continue for some time, while Bosnians will be accused of promoting the "fake Croat" to the presidium.
But not everything is so gloomy, not all parties play into ethnic politics.. According to the latest data, both the SDA and the CDU lose their voters since the post-war electoral peak in the mid-90s. Voting voters have fallen by a staggering two-thirds since. There are very few politicians who can overcome ethnic disunity (people like Komsic are an exception), but voters’s preferences are far from constant.
The Republika Srpska Dodik also does not control as well as it seems at first glance.
Shortly before the elections, 40,000 people marched through Banja Luka, demanding an investigation into the death of David Dragichevich, a 21-year-old student who is believed to have been abducted and killed by police. “Justice for David” (Pravda za Davida) has become the slogan for all opponents of Dodik’s increasingly authoritarian management style.. Tellingly, protests were held in the Bosnian Sarajevo. In other words, all residents of Bosnia can in fact be united by one thing: the struggle for a decent and honest government.. All is not lost.
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