Perhaps, it is the debate about the resumed demographic crisis (see. : The beginning of the discussion, the comment of the Ministry of Health, the answer to the Ministry of Health), but, perhaps, the demographic crisis itself, which imperiously reminded of itself,. Putin, according to yesterday's announcement of the newspaper Vedomosti, to hold a meeting on demographic issues. The newspaper Vedomosti itself ventured on, it seems, an unprecedented step for the Russian mainstream press - the publication of a schedule. "The demographic cross of Russia," more precisely: two demographic crosses - the first (1990's), and now the second (2010-ies - 2030-ies).
Since the Ministry of Health of Russia was so offended at drawing public attention to official data on the actual increase in death rates in the last ten months, now, after the publication of the forecast schedule for rapid, prolonged and sustained growth of death in the next two decades - up to 2035. , Naturally, the question arises: what protests will the Ministry now take against the newspaper Vedomosti that published this schedule, as well as to the Federal Statistics Service that calculated this forecast? However, the inner voice for some reason suggests that this time the Ministry of Health will prefer to keep silent.
However, incomparably more serious problems are, of course, not personal offenses of officials, but a demographic disaster developing in the country.
It is easy to see that the official demographic forecast for Russia until 2035, prepared by the FSS, coolly states that the goal of overcoming the demographic crisis, repeatedly stated in the. Putin - since 2000, has not been achieved. The fact of overcoming the demographic crisis, also repeatedly announced in the. Putin in recent years, just not true. The demographic crisis not only did not recede, it is imperiously and inexorably approaching a country that has already squandered (alas, so ineptly) the latest strategic reserves for reversing negative demographic trends.
The situation is exacerbated not only by the impassive forecast prepared by professional demographers some time ago, but also by the fact that to date it has become obsolete. Judging by the data of this forecast, the next period of excess mortality over births in Russia was to begin only in 2019. However, in fact, it began three years earlier - in 2016. , When the number of deaths exceeded the number of people born in the country by 2,3 thousand. People. Over the past 12 months (since May 2016 g. Until April 2017. ) Natural decline in the population of Russia has grown to 57,4 thousand. People. And for the first four months of 2017. It reached 92.8 thousand. People. While maintaining the current trends for 2017 g. The excess of the number of deaths over the number of births will be 280 thousand. People. , T. Magnitude greater than it was in the crisis year 2009.
As you know, the possibility of a targeted state policy on a substantial and sustainable change in the demographic behavior of the population in a positive direction (increasing the birth rate, reducing mortality) is very limited. On the other hand, the authorities' ability to change the demographic behavior of the population in a negative direction (the drop in the birth rate, the increase in mortality) is very high: for this, it is sufficient to organize economic crises, social shocks, suppression of the free will of citizens within the country, aggressive adventures outside.
This, and with considerable "success," is also the responsibility of the current Russian authorities - from internal economic and socio-political degradation to foreign intervention and attempts to confront virtually with the entire surrounding world. Perhaps, it is not accidental that the turn in demographic trends, although it was expected for a number of years, occurred precisely after the annexation of the Crimea, the bombing of Syria, the beginning of the war against Ukraine, which increasingly begins to acquire the features of a "hundred-year".
However, if the demographic turn itself was regularly predicted, then its actual scale, which has recently been manifested, is not only unexpected, but also completely unprecedented. Over the past 12 months (since May 2016 g. Until April 2017. ), The birth rate in Russia fell to 12.4 births per 1000 people. This is 0.8 births (6.2%) less than in the previous 12 months (13.2 per 1000 people. Population). Over the past 12 months in Russia was born at 120 thousand. Children less than before the adventures of the Kremlin in the Crimea, Donbass, Aleppo. This drop in the birth rate has only one analogue in recent Russian history - 1992-1993, when the authorities organized a real economic, social, demographic catastrophe. The second edition of it is happening right now, on our eyes. In terms of the rate of fall in the birth rate, the year 2016-17 became a repetition of 1992-93.
This is truly a real demographic strike - the forced refusal of millions of people from the seemingly most powerful human instinct, from the most precious human joy, from the most important investment in the future of one's own and of one's family - from the desire to have children of their own. As you know, some animals do not breed in captivity. If people do not have the opportunity to change their conditions of existence (as in free countries), if they do not have the opportunity even to express their protest in a civilized way, then they can only escape from such a "paradise". If they do not have such an opportunity, their response is to refuse to continue their own kind.
When the next time you hear about 85% support of the regime, remember the figures of the national demographic strike - an unprecedented fall in the birth rate at the 18th, "peaceful" year of this power.
When the next time you will be told that "our Crimea", then all lovers of the "Crimean sandwich" should know that hundreds of thousands of unborn people have already paid for military adventures and robbery of someone else's property (not only the only one, but only one of many) In Russia children - what in the impartial language of experts is dryly called a national demographic catastrophe.
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