On the first day of summer, the head of the White House, Donald Trump, announced a historic decision - the US is withdrawing from the Paris agreement on a climate designed to reduce emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere.
This step was not unexpected, but it was he who traced the line between the States of Trump and the States of Obama. The trait is much more clear than the missile strike on Syria, the migration decree and the "exchange of courtesies" with the DPRK. The climate decision clearly showed that the transatlantic unity, which for many years was the basis of the world order, is no longer there.
"The Observer" figured out why the withdrawal from the agreement will have global consequences, not only for the climate.
Disappointment of Europe The fate of the agreement was decided on May 27 at the G7 summit. Then world leaders made the last attempt to convince Trump, but apparently unsuccessful. Following the results of the talks, the most revealing was the statement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel: "We Europeans must take their own destiny into their own hands. Times when we (the US and Europe). - Red. ) Could completely rely on each other, passed. In recent days, I clearly understood this ". Badly concealed disappointment was evident in the comments of other representatives of the EU countries.
The climate is only one of the apples of discord between the Old World and the New. But for Europe, the Paris agreement is a red line, roughly like for Trump - the use of chemical weapons in Syria. This is not only a concerted strategy for world development, but also the largest diplomatic victory of recent years. In 2015, the agreement was approved by 195 countries, including Ukraine, China and even Russia, which even then was in open confrontation with the West. Withdrawing the US from the agreement, Trump does not cross it out, but will significantly reduce its potential efficiency. After all, in the States in 2016 accounted for about 14% of global emissions of greenhouse gases.
UN, leaders of key EU countries and Canada have already expressed their regret and disappointment with the decision of Trump. They stressed that their policy in this matter will remain unchanged. China and Russia also expressed support for the Paris Agreement. Thus, for the first time in more than three years "on the other side of the barricade" is Washington, and not Moscow. "The international system has become even more fragile," Ukraine's permanent representative to the Council of Europe Dmitriy Kuleba.
Tactician, but not a strategist Under Obama, the alliance between the US and the EU has significantly strengthened. This was promoted by common values, which, albeit with some reservations, were professed by their leaders. On June 1, first of all, the abyss of values ??deepened, which is much more difficult to overcome than situational quarrels.
Unlike Europe, Trump prefers to think tactically, not strategically. He relies on the "old economy", while most of the world has taken a course on new technologies. The abandonment of the Paris agreement is likely to allow the United States to strengthen its industrial capacity, as well as retain or even increase jobs. Of course, this will find a response from the supporters of Trump: industrial giants, miners, workers involved in the extraction and processing of oil and so on. In the short term Trump will probably get political points, support the role of a determined and tough leader, achieve economic dividends for the country. But from the point of view of long-term or even medium-term prospects, problems appear:.
- a split with Europe and allies in other regions deepens. States are moving steadily towards self-isolation, yielding the palm tree in many spheres to other countries. "Climate leadership", for example, may well move to China. Meanwhile, the EU made it clear that the role of the "led" by Washington suited him, while the White House was heading in the right direction;.
- Trump, maybe, will strengthen his position among the potential electorate, but the withdrawal from the agreement a priori - the strengthening of his opponents, who are already starting to earn points on the climatic scandal. Even in the president's team, not everyone agrees with his decision. The founder of SpaceX and Tesla, Ilon Mask, in protest came out of all the expert councils at the White House. A similar decision was made by the head of The Walt Disney Robert Iger. The number of Trump's allies is thinning, and it is not clear what will happen later, especially against the backdrop of a new round of investigation against the president in Congress;.
- "The future of our children is at stake," Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg reacted to the climate demarche, conveying the general tone of the statements of the supporters of the agreement. The Paris agreements were designed to contain climate change.
In 2015, most world leaders recognized the problem and heeded the dry figures. According to the scientists, it is necessary to keep the temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius in relation to the pre-industrial era, or the world will face irreversible consequences. And in comparison with the XIX century, temperatures have already grown by almost 1 degree Celsius.
As reported by the "Observer", the ecologist described the consequences of Trump's decision.
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