Completion of the first overseas tour of the new president of the United States was marked by optimistic assessments of the White House and disillusioned comments by Europeans - from Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel to observers of the leading television channels and editions of the "old continent". Meanwhile, this tour allows to predict what will be the American foreign policy with the new owner of the White House - and whether it will be at all. And for the development of this forecast, one can go both by analyzing the specific outcome of the trip, and by analyzing President Trump's approaches to this foreign policy.
Analysis of the results of the visit leaves a wide field for discussions, so they are contradictory. There is an unprecedented armored deal with Saudi Arabia, and the first ever visit by the incumbent American president of the old city in Jerusalem and the Western Wall, and agreement with other world leaders on tough actions against Russia, and the lack of interest in Europe's migration problems, and the lack of agreements on the issue. Attitude to the climate agenda ... Something has remained unchanged since the election of Trump as the new president, something has changed radically - which allows you to make a statement Od, that will change and other positions ... But that's what really remained unchanged - so this is absolute indifference to real politics. Actually, the indifference, for which voted the majority of voters Donald Trump. The indifference that made him the president of the United States, writes Vitaly Portnikov for LB.
This indifference manifested itself in a number of details of the trip of the American president - those details that were referred to rather as elements of "secular chronicle", but which could be for Donald Trump the defining. For example, the same ritual dance at the court of the Saudi King did not look like a consolidation of the United States' political position in the Middle East, but some escort of the "big deal" that led the American president into indescribable ecstasy - he promised his voters a deal and he suits these deals! And the very word "bargain", at last, has acquired specific features - it's not some kind of senseless search for mutually acceptable compromises, but selling American goods for good money.
Another important factor in the true perception of political processes was the phrase thrown by Trump to reporters before the talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He assured the assembled press that "he did not utter the word Israel". It took several minutes to realize that the American president was responding to accusations that during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov he inadvertently gave out information about the plans of the "Islamic state", proceeded from the Israeli intelligence agent in the ranks of extremists. The media pointed out that if the Kremlin shares this information with its allies, Israeli intelligence interests can be irreparably damaged. But no one rebuked Trump in that he pronounced the word "Israel" or told Lavrov that the information comes from the Israeli residency. The American president was accused of risking the life of residents for the sake of blatant words and complicated the receipt of valuable information. Judging by the Trump phrase, he took the accusations literally - that he "betrayed Israel," which did not happen during the meeting with Lavrov. And this is also an indicator of the attitude towards real politics.
All other comical episodes - such as an attempt to come to the fore by pushing away the Prime Minister of Montenegro or unwillingness to pass 450 meters to the final photograph of the leaders of the "big seven" - from the same series. This is simply the result of sincere perception of political activity, not as a serious exchange of views and coordination of interests, not as a painstaking work with documents, but as an endless television show, the main hero of which, of course, must be the President of the United States. And this is not even a "House of Cards", which could suddenly become a model of such behavior - simply because the heroes of the "House of Cards" have to constantly coordinate interests and work with documents. This is a completely different series.
Another is because, according to Israeli sources, President Trump can not concentrate on anything more than four minutes and translates the conversation on another topic. This inability to dive, the reader can easily track, observing, for example, the behavior of the American leader while visiting the Kotel. You can watch with a stopwatch how much time he loses interest in what is happening and to the storytellers - and extrapolate this time to negotiations involving Trump. Therefore, Trump translates politics into the show not for malicious intent. Show, presentation, spectacular poses, bright phrases - this is what he can do. Nothing else he will not learn.
What does this mean for American foreign policy, for the world? And the fact that while Donald Trump will be president of the United States, there will not be any strategic decisions in the White House. A certain line can be traced only where the president will delegate authority to representatives of his own environment - that is, in matters of secondary importance.
Strategic strategy will be replaced by strategic randomness, which means that the influence that the United States had previously had on the very development of mankind will create a vacuum that will quickly and confidently be filled by other players capable of assessing their new role and unexpected chance.
And Donald Trump's successor - if only he wants to return to his country's former role - will really have to push these players elbows.
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