Yesterday, on the train, on the way home, I discussed a bit with one of my familiar tour of President Donald Trump to the Middle East. And after a long break, nevertheless, I was going to write about this, because as a result of this conversation I was able to decompose less on the shelves those ideas that appeared during the monitoring of the visit.
With the advent of the new administration in the US, the understanding of the region has not changed much. In general, this tour will not go down in history, as historical, although somewhat declarative, worthy of easy optimism, moments can still be seen in it. On the other hand, - the devil, as you know, lies in the details, which I would like to touch a little.
First stop, - Saudi Arabia. CA is, if not the oldest, then the oldest, but the most serious US ally in the region. It's not a secret that the US always had an interest in Saudi oil, and the United States in turn provided Saudi Arabia with the latest weapons and the promotion of their political interests on the world stage. The current visit is primarily strategic, that is, the Islamic Council will create a military coalition - the "Middle Eastern Strategic Coalition" led by CA and Egypt, which for the time being will consist of approximately 34,000 people and will participate in the war against the Hutitus, the Shiites in Yemen, who Threaten oil routes through the Gulf of Aden. Ormuz, as is known already under the Iranian control. Later, this force, will have to confront Iran, and its allies in the person of the Shiite coalition in Syria, and Hezbollah, as well as the opposition of IGIL in the region. This alliance was cemented by a huge contract for armament, at $ 110 billion.
On the one hand, we have Iran, which is controlled by the ayatollahs, threatens the whole region. But we must not forget that about 80% of Iran's people are educated, for example, the percentage of women in academic circles is higher than in the West. People are far from fanatical in their views and not bellicose, based on my personal experience of dealing with the Iranians. Elections in Iran do not influence foreign policy in any way, but are of a purely political nature. President - "Reformist", equally hostile to the US and Israel, as well as the "conservative". For example, yesterday's appeal of General Kassem Suleymani to the leader of Hamas, Mashal that it is necessary to unite and liberate Jerusalem from the Zionists. The attempt of revolution is known as our past government with success profukalo.
On the other hand, we have Saudi Arabia, where feudalism flourishes along with the latest technology. The birthplace of Sunni fundamentalism, Wahhabism. Even a big sponsor of terrorism, than Iran. Where there is not even a concept of human rights. The question arises: Will this weapons deal, and the whole union, against Israel turn back if we assume that the Shiites will somehow be weakened? Since, despite a strong economic union between the US and the SA, primarily based on oil, which can still hold out until at least 2030, until the oil in the region runs out. There is almost no formal relationship between Israel and the SA, except in the sphere of security, intelligence and technology.
Next, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Accidentally or not, the visit of Donald Trump almost coincided with the 50th anniversary of the Liberation and Unification of Jerusalem in the 1967 Six-Day War. This main event was a photo session of the President and his family during a visit to the Western Wall, one of the main historical and religious symbols for Israel and many Diaspora Jews. Declarativeness of this moment can be really significant for Israel, because firstly, it is an official visit of the US president, and not private, as many presidents did before him; secondly, this visit was preceded by a UNESCO declaration that there is no historical Connections between Jews and Jerusalem. Similarly, someone from the American consulate blurted out something similar, we must not forget that the US consulate is in East Jerusalem and many of the employees in it are Palestinians. Many Israeli politicians regarded this visit as a symbol of the fact that the new administration takes Israel's position on the issue of Jerusalem.
It should be noted that in Israel it was initially known that he would not bring sensational news in the field of resuming negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Autonomy. Moreover, Israel was afraid of surprises on the part of Donald Trump, as he is known for many, his talent for change. But everything went by with the exception of a few small burrs, like clockwork. All have played their roles, who are standing in traffic jams, or coming to school an hour earlier in Jerusalem. Who at the airport meeting the President and his delegation, who making selfi as a member of the Likud Knesset Oren Hazan with Donald Trump. Who the decision to cancel a speech to the President in the Knesset, because of fears that he simply will not be allowed to finish because of constant interruptions and comments from the audience.
In custody. Against this background, under the water, nevertheless, a certain new dynamics appeared, which with some optimism can bring some positive results. Today, the Times of Israel newspaper, close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, said: "According to a high-ranking official in Ramallah, during a private conversation between Donald Trump and Mahmoud Abbas, Trump shed light on the conflict settlement plan. According to him, first of all, there should be a region-wide agreement between Israel and the countries of the region on peace, and their recognition of Israel, and only then the process of creating a Palestinian state. In other words, the Saudi initiative, which in principle in Israel is agreed, only in a different order. This initiative is principally supported by the Arab countries.
Secondly, it was reported that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that pressure was put on the PA to sit at the negotiating table, both from the USA and from Egypt and Jordan, up to the conflict between King Abdullah and Abu Mazen. Abu Mazen is not ready to sign a treaty without resolving the Palestinian issue in the first place.
Similarly, Mahmoud Abbas was given to understand that with Hamas in Gaza he would have to deal with himself.
Will this, the next opportunity, be used to move the peace process from its next dead center or not, the opinions of experts differ, but the fact that there has appeared at least some kind of new idea of ??its own kind already instills a share of optimism.
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