Russia is "a peaceful country ready to repel any aggressor". With such theses, many Russian statesmen, beginning with the president. However, formidable defensive statements are for some reason accompanied by the development of offensive weapons.

The reason for this inconsistency is explained by the Russian political scientist and publicist Ivan Preobrazhensky in an article on DW.

The decline of the Russian economy only slightly slowed down the rearmament of the Russian army. As soon as it became clear that oil prices were unlikely to fall much in the near future, as the Russian leadership accelerated the program for the rearmament of the armed forces. Economize on the defensive, as economists did, for example, Alexei Kudrin, the Kremlin never began.

Vladimir Putin holds one meeting after another, discussing what the Russian army will be capable of by 2025. And his spokesman Dmitry Peskov notes that such brainstorming with the representatives of the military-industrial complex, the Ministry of Defense, the armed forces is a unique format invented personally by the president and first tried in 2013. That is, we will add from ourselves, on the eve of the annexation of Russia by the Crimea.

Even judging by the discussion of the state defense order for 2016 (fulfilled, according to Vladimir Putin, by 98.8%), it is clear that the Kremlin does not intend to economize in armament. Unsurprisingly, given that just last year, Russian spending "on defense" reached a historic high.

Attack or defend yourself?.

What is Russia preparing to attack or defend? Many, as head of the National Security Bureau of Poland Pavel Solokh, clearly fear that Moscow is preparing to attack and therefore consider it a threat to NATO. "The main challenge" for the "European security model" is calling Russia and Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hulttkist.

The Russian authorities themselves assert that all these are exceptionally defensive preparations. They say, just like in the Soviet Union, that Russia, they say, is ready to respond to any aggression, but itself is an exceptionally peaceful power.

It is alarming that Russia is ready to reflect aggression not only on its territory. According to the "defense" deputy prime minister of the Russian government Dmitry Rogozin, Moscow intends to protect not only its borders, but also to take care of "the inviolability of the borders of friendly countries". Unfortunately, the examples of Ukraine and, in part, Syria, it is clear how the Kremlin interprets aid to "friendly countries".

Surface technical analysis of Russian plans for rearmament also does not support the "innocence" of its military preparations. How, for example, will you order the issues discussed at one of the meetings "to increase the combat capabilities of the Iskander-M complex, including by increasing the range and creating new missiles" used in the missile complex of the ground forces "? This is actually a step towards a revision Soviet-American Treaty on the Elimination of Missiles of Medium and Short Range, signed on December 8, 1987, according to which the range of such missiles can not exceed 5500 km. Not too "defensive" is the idea of ??giving the best military units the title of "shock". This word is clearly not from defensive lexicon.

The ongoing changes in the Russian army indicate that the most active are the "offensive" units. In the aerospace forces, the share of modern weapons by the end of 2017 should be 68%, in the airborne troops - 58%, and the main defensive force - land forces - should be provided with new types of equipment only 42%. Finally, Vladimir Putin, in fact, although very few people noticed, announced the need to "mobilize" Russian science, as it was in the USSR.

Are military threats serious?.

Moscow clearly does not want to discharge or does not believe in it. And, as a consequence, continues to arm. But only its capabilities do not fully correspond to the fears it causes in certain European neighbors.

Despite record spending on weapons, by the end of 2017, the Russian army as a whole will be equipped with modern weapons only 62%. There is obviously not enough money and technology, the importance of which says Vladimir Putin. So now Russia is capable of only operations like the Syrian or the support of a variety of "people's republics".

To the active offensive war the country is clearly not ready, even if someone wanted it.

However, it is difficult to predict what will happen by 2025, especially since under the current constitution, by the time the Russian president should be no longer Putin. Can one only expect war and prepare for it without wanting to start it? This is the danger of self-fulfilling predictions: it is sometimes very difficult to stop at the threshold of war.

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