The word "elections" in Russia is not very appropriate. It is, of course, the preservation of authoritarian power or some new scheme that the Kremlin will propose. These are not elections, this is the preservation of power. And it is clear that this is not the power of Putin alone, but of some such not very broad group that is interested in keeping Putin formally in power. Any weakening of power creates for them very high risks - for them personally and for their capital. Today, there are several schemes for implementing this plan - the preservation of power.

One of the schemes is to keep Putin as president. And, as far as I understand, today is not the dominant. Today, the Kremlin is considering several options, several ways to preserve power, creating an imitation of the transfer of power. But even such a transfer of power - formal, conditional, decorative, - very dangerous. In any case, it is seen in the Kremlin as a dangerous step fraught with all sorts of unexpected consequences.

Today, there are two options, in any case, the Kremlin experts say about them. This Volodin and Matvienko. Of course, the backup option, the old one, associated with Medvedev. Even in this case, the risks increase very much, the danger of maintaining the power of this group increases.

The danger is also of two types. The first is connected with the fact that after all the new president, the newly appointed or temporarily used president, can intercept the power. In this sense, by weakening Putin's power and, accordingly, in some arbitrary degree of speaking, the rules of the game.

And the second option is connected with the fact that the reins of government will not be as tense as it was during Putin's time, they will not be so rigidly controlled.

The fact is that within this group there are constant conflicts. The natural process of competition within this group - competition for resources, competition for power, conflicts. In essence, by appointing one of the candidates directly or indirectly, Putin prefers one of the groups. Today there are no people, so to speak, outside these cushioned Kremlin political parties. This means that some group will intensify, some group will become weaker, and this can disrupt the current balance.

And there is another factor, very important - the external. This is a factor in the state of Russia, the state of minds, the state of the economy, the factor associated with Russia's very visible isolation in the world. This factor is constantly changing the position of Russia itself and, accordingly, the position of this group within Russia and outside Russia, then weakening it, then, conditionally speaking, strengthening.

So the situation is much more complicated than just elections, the appointment of President Putin. And most importantly, there can be no final decision yet, there are discussions within this group. There are conservatives who do not want to change anything, there are realists who say that it is necessary to change, otherwise it can lead to a significant weakening of the whole group. Well and most importantly, the competition for resources continues, for closeness to the monarch, to the president. These are processes that change everything very quickly.

I think that the final decision will be made sometime in September, the decision on which of the schemes will be implemented. While all schemes have so many drawbacks that it is impossible to stop at one.

In addition, the situation in Russia changes quite rapidly. The recent rallies have shown that protest activity is growing, and not only rallies, say, all kinds of performances in the regions - there are truckers, and in the Far East, the affected car drivers, and the affected investors. They constantly appear, constantly in a situation of confrontation with the authorities.

This is a dynamic process in which those who make a decision in the Kremlin would like to be in a certain state of stability, but the further, the less stability. Therefore, it may very well be that even the final decision taken in September or in the summer will be revised several times.

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