There were no breakthroughs in Putin's meeting with Merkel and his conversation with Trump. And it is unlikely that these conversations will affect anything. Putin has a hang-up state - the computer is frozen. This is what clearly characterizes the whole current situation. In part, of course, this is due to foreign policy, since Trump's rough activity for Putin is completely unaccustomed. He does not know how to react to this. In part, this is due to the fact that all rates of Russian foreign policy turned out to be bits or, at least,. Trump hopes did not justify, the European Union is not going to fall apart, it seems that in the elections in France, after all, will win Macron, and, therefore, the bet on Le Pen did not give anything, as well as the rate on other pro-Russian politicians in this country. And in Syria, everything is confused, there is no light. Today, Putin met with Erdogan and said that Turkey has excellent relations with Russia. It's cute, but one must also bear in mind that Erdogan firmly stands in the position: Assad must leave. Russia can not influence Turkey, but can Turkey influence Russia - an unclear issue. In Ukraine, according to the Donbas - a complete fade, too, everything was hanging. Putin hovers psychologically. Not from the point of view of relations with Trump or Merkel, but from the point of view of relations with himself, writes Leonid Radzikhovsky for "Apostrophe".
He is very fast - and there is less time every day - to decide whether to be or not to be. That is, whether to go to the elections and become the president of the Russian Federation for another 6 years or not to go. It is clear that if he goes, then, of course, he will be chosen. It's completely unclear what Putin will do. Will choose it, of course, the mandate will confirm it. But his mandate is not on trust. This is a mandate for the gradual loss of confidence over the next 6 years. If there is no miracle, it will be a mandate for six years of decay, and he understands this perfectly. I think that he feels the sharpest of all the others. The old picture that was at the time of Obama ended, when Russia was very active on the international stage, than Putin compensated for the stagnation in the country, attracted the attention of the whole world and thereby achieved popularity and success within the Russian Federation. No external activity that compensates for internal failures is no longer possible. And inside the country there is nothing to hope for, because the economy is stagnating. And if even the economy will grow by 1-1,5% per year, then this is no joy and a sense of success will not bring.
I think, in all likelihood, according to the picture of the role of the Russian president, Putin will go to the polls. And whether his hangup will end after he goes to the polls, or go into a state of deeper depression, is completely incomprehensible. With the political regime that exists in Russia, Putin chooses only one person - he himself. If he chose to be president, then he will be. There will be no struggle. There is no competition, not with Navalny anyway. And hanging can easily get depressed. Yes, the president in a depressed state is quite possible. At least external shocks, external drivers for Putin to go into the stage of confidence, activity, vivacity - they are for a 65-year-old man who for at least 6 years will still lead the country (which he already runs 17 years), which resides in Recent years in a state of socio-economic stagnation and psychological marasmus, I do not see. I think that the choice for him is very simple technically, but not easy psychologically.
If we talk about the issues discussed (with Merkel and Trump - "Apostrophe"), then the results can be argued that the situation with the Donbass has frozen. Perhaps, there will be a new stage of the Minsk negotiations, and to them some meaningless "pif-paf". Theoretically, this scenario is possible, but almost nothing can change there. This is the equilibrium situation. And in relations with America, I do not think that Trump put an end to cooperation with Russia. No, he can go to the contact. The US will offer the Russian Federation mitigation of financial, technological, personal sanctions. And Russia? Leaving Syria for Putin is the ultimate political and human disgrace. He was not leaving anywhere, at least so clearly, with his tail tucked up. In addition, it is not at all true that Russia's withdrawal from Syria is so badly needed by the Americans. They also do not have a clue what to do with Syria. Yes, leaving Russia from there would have been Trump's PR. But from a practical point of view, what to do with this victory? Trump does not understand this either..
In short, the goods that Russia can offer to America for exchange, I do not see. In my opinion, for those months that Trump is in power, no one has ever been able to find this product.
And the hanging of Russian-American relations, mutual frustration are not so much connected with the fact that "the American media are hounding Trump for his relations with Russia", but with a simpler, prosaic reason - there is no bargaining. Russia and the United States can not find the subject for bargaining.
Editorial site is not responsible for the content of blogs. The editorial opinion may differ from the author's.
Join the groups "Browser Blogs" on Facebook and VKontakte, stay tuned!.