When US President Donald Trump visits the NATO summit in Brussels on May 25, he should not endlessly kick Europeans for their defense spending. Instead, he must direct the attention of the Allies to the need to oppose Russia's nuclear blackmail, as well as its advantages in conventional weapons.
This in an article for the Atlantic Council wrote a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council Stephen Blank.
He admits that NATO, of course, needs additional resources, but the reluctance of the countries of Europe to spend 2% of GDP on their armies is far from the main problem of the alliance.
"The real problem is the reluctance to realize that Europe is no longer a peaceful place and will not become such in the near future," writes Blank, noting that NATO's response to Russia's threats to European security is too slow and inconsistent.
RAND recently came to the conclusion that European forces are still not ready to face the challenges. As a result, NATO faced the threat of Moscow's invasion of the Baltic countries, the Balkans and the Black Sea region. At the same time, the Russian side allows itself to blackmail countries with the help of its nuclear weapons.
If NATO wants to avoid a state of constant weak efficiency and inability to protect its allies who think that the alliance guarantees their security, then the Brussels summit will have to talk frankly. The discussion should address the root of the problem: Russia has violated arms control agreements that concern Europe, and this can not be left unanswered. Russian recent extraordinary exercises violate the Vienna Document. Russia violated the agreement with the USSR on the elimination of medium and short-range missiles, and Washington, knowing this since 2008, did nothing in response. Moscow suspended participation in the "Treaty on Conventional Arms in Europe". In addition, she violated a number of international agreements, when she invaded Ukraine.
Moscow also demonstrates its willingness to use nuclear weapons. And European capitals, according to Blank, there are reasons to be nervous. By 2018, according to the treaty on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive weapons, it should reduce the number of strategic warheads to 1,5 thousand. This means that in a year Moscow needs to dismantle 200 warheads. And if you look at her behavior in recent years, we can assume that this will not happen. Russia has put a priority on modernizing its nuclear forces. In addition, if we look at the Russian programs for the development of nuclear and supersonic weapons, we can conclude that Moscow is building weapons that threaten the US and Europe.
The author notes that NATO must begin to act, and do it quickly and now. Alnso should begin to resist the fact that Europe is no longer a peaceful place and even a nuclear war is possible. Therefore, the Allies need to build up conventional military capabilities to prevent Moscow from thinking that it can again "put everyone before the fact," as it did in the Crimea, or threaten NATO countries with nuclear weapons.
Reliable deterrence should not only protect against non-nuclear threats, but also dispel the Russian strategy of "short victorious wars". But NATO also needs to address some of the nuclear problems that the bloc has long avoided. He should formulate an answer that will force Russia to abandon nuclear threats and not provoke a war. Of course, a dialogue about all this will be long. But it's worth starting with an accurate awareness of reality. The European security system needs to be rebuilt in times of conflict. And without penalties for violation of agreements on arms control will not be.
Blank points out that the West has long shut its eyes to violations of international agreements on the security system in Europe after the collapse of the USSR. Without the construction of an effective and solid European security structure that would include Ukraine and other pro-European post-Soviet countries, NATO and the EU will only strengthen and revitalize the challenges they have already faced.
Earlier, during a visit to Moscow, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that relations between the United States of America and Russia do not normalize until a full resolution of the conflict in the East of Ukraine.
Recall that during an official visit to Moscow on April 12, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. They discussed bilateral relations, as well as international policy issues.
At the same time, Tillerson did not raise in the Kremlin the issue of changing the regime of sanctions against the Russian Federation for armed aggression against Ukraine.