Russia entered the period of street protests against the authorities. The dissatisfaction of critical people is growing, but due to the possibilities of the state machine and the relative scarcity of shares, it is unlikely that it will be possible to reverse the situation. On the only possibility of changing the regime in the Russian Federation and the strategic goals of the Kremlin, read in the second part of the interview of the "Observer" with the American-Russian historian, publicist and co-author of the sensational book "The FSB Blasts Russia" by Yuri Felshtinsky.

In the first part, read about why you should not believe in the indicative "tussle" of the US and Russian presidents.

- Do you seriously perceive the protests in Russia? A common opinion: the Kremlin, in fact, has nothing against these shares, because they allow society to "let off steam".

- I take the protests in Russia seriously. I do not think at the same time that they can influence Putin, the Kremlin and the FSB, because the people in Russia have no tools to influence the authorities. In normal countries, this instrument is elections - central and local. In Russia, these elections became a formality, approximately as in the USSR at one time.

As for the release of steam from the boiler, this, I think, is achieved primarily through open borders. Those who really can not exist in Russia under the current regime, in the end leave. Well, or they are killed, like Boris Nemtsov.

- Is there a danger of new waves of terrorist attacks in Russia, which would be aimed at "rallying society"?.

- Terror acts - this is the reality in which today the whole world lives. Earlier there were epidemics of plague and cholera. Now - the epidemic of terrorist attacks. There are very good reasons to believe that the organization of these acts of terrorism is related to the FSB of the Russian Federation. But, of course, not for all terrorist attacks is the FSB. In all cases, the current leadership of Russia, which is not particularly scrupulous, each time uses terrorist attacks - both international and Russian - for its own purposes, even when not the FSB organizes them.

- Do you see any potential for regime change in Russia? So far, one thing is certain: by elections this will not happen.

- Not now I do not see, nor "I do not see at all". I believe that the regime change in Russia can happen only as a result of another military catastrophe, in which Putin draws Russia and eventually draws. Then there will be a change of regime. But the price paid for this, like the price of any war, will be very high for all participants. It's just that Europe will not be allowed to seize Putin, even if one squeezes and imagines in a bad dream that the Trojan horse Trump will fulfill all the obligations he has undertaken with respect to Putin.

- Is there any chance that in case of economic and internal political problems, Russia will "let go" Ukraine, accept that Kiev has chosen a European vector?.

- I do not think that this can happen, while in power in Russia Putin and people from the FSB. In Transdniestria, the conflict is not dying out, and Moldova and the world community have fully reconciled with this. Abkhazia and South Ossetia are cut off from Georgia, but even here Russia reserves the opportunity to turn these territories back into flaming land and, who knows, can continue to jerk off these bridgeheads. Although I do not think that the nearest plans of the Kremlin include an attempt to occupy Georgia.

Of course, Moscow understands that while Ukraine is involved in an armed conflict (in the East) and in a territorial dispute (in the Crimea) with Russia, Ukraine can not enter NATO either (it will simply not be admitted to NATO if there is an open conflict with Russia) Nor to the European Union as a full member. In March-May 2014, when Putin began to seize the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, it was a minimum program - to start a conflict and thus prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and the European Union. Therefore, I doubt that the Kremlin will leave Ukraine alone, even if it does not dare to launch a full-scale war and direct territorial seizure.

- Recently, people started talking about the risk that Belarus also became a potential target for Moscow's aggression. Is this possible? And how do you assess the likelihood of Lukashenka's dismissal by the Kremlin?.

- If you look at the map, it is obvious that Belarus is of great geopolitical value for Russia. The seizure of Belarus leads Russia to the borders of numerous neighbors, which, to the great pleasure of Putin, can either be terrorized by the threat of seizure, or simply seized. All these neighbors, however, are members of NATO.

Lukashenka in very difficult situation. He has no supporters - he is a petty European usurper, in no way inferior to anyone. There are also no opportunities to protect oneself from external aggression. The centuries-old history of Europe is also not on its side: Belarus has never been an independent state. Putin leaves Belarus a buffer between himself and Europe until he considers it profitable. Especially, probably, the military has long explained to him that it is possible to capture Belarus with the same ease as the Crimea, and at any time (unlike the Crimea, where it had to hurry due to the revolution and the flight of Yanukovych). The irony is that, on the one hand, Lukashenko is the only guarantor of Belarus' independence. If tomorrow something happens to Lukashenko, Russia, undoubtedly, annexes Belarus. On the other hand, the presence of Lukashenko does not eliminate the threat of the seizure of Belarus by Belarus.

- What is the strategic goal of Putin now? The global leadership of the Russian Federation clearly does not shine. An attempt to resuscitate the Soviet Union, too, seems to have failed.

- We have already identified several of Putin's strategic goals: the collapse of NATO, the disintegration of the European Union (read in the first part of the interview - Red. Both with the first and second are the results of elections this year in Europe, primarily in France and Germany. If Le Pen wins in France and France withdraws from the European Union and NATO (France in fact left NATO in 1966 and returned there only in 2009), this, of course, will be a very serious blow, especially on the EU. And then there are the elections in Germany.

So Putin, of course, is still waiting:

first, the election results, and secondly, the beginning of the military conflict with the United States or North Korea or Iran. Then he will begin to act, especially since in 2018 he will need to be re-elected in Russia, which means that it will be necessary to somehow stir up his own population.

As reported by the "Observer", oppositionist Alexei Navalny announced new protests in Russia.

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