France is not just very unhappy, it is waging war with itself. The first round of presidential elections, to be held on April 23, can send any two candidates to the next level of the competition, May 7.
Candidates are diverse: from odious right to vicious left with two market-oriented reformists in the middle. Not often European democracy is torn apart by progress and catastrophe.
This is written today by The Economist. After Brexit, the victory of Donald Trump in the US and the referendum in Turkey, which gave Rajap Tayyip Erdogan great power, the struggle for liberal internationalism moved to the cradle of the Enlightenment. At stake is not only the future of France. The European Union will be stalled if one of its driving forces is engulfed in chaos or hostility. It can even fail, destroying the organizational principle of the whole continent.
If on May 7, the ultra-right candidate Marin Le Pen or the left-wing Jean-Luc Melenschon wins, it will be a disaster. Therefore, the success of any of the two market-oriented candidates seems to be a blessing. But the election of one of them includes a compromise and a game of chance. Macron is not experienced by political experience and he lacks the support of a successful party. At the same time, over Francois Fillon there were loud scandals. The publication says that taking into account all the pros and cons, Macron seems more attractive.
But who would not become president, he will inherit an irritated country. Unemployment has remained at a level above 10% since 2012, and among youth - above 20%. The economy is growing slowly and does not receive enough taxes to pay for public services, which the French consider as their right. Racial and religious tension is growing after a series of terrorist attacks in the country. And dislike for the EU is even stronger than it was before the referendum in the UK on the withdrawal from the union.
France was usually led by brainy officials who had the privileges and power to approach this role. But such a social contract is no longer valid. The level of support for the current president is below 4%. People are convinced that the elites have failed. Le Pen and Melanchone play on this. Each in its own way, but they promise the French a return to the idealistic past, when the state was generous, and life was safer. They say that protectionism can make France richer, that a turn from NATO to Russia guarantees greater security, that an exit from the EU will allow for prosperity, a decrease in the retirement age and an increase in social payments will strengthen solidarity in society. But in fact, all this will make France even weaker and heavier in debt.
To this, each of them adds a little "poison" of its own production. Le Pen, for example, wants to ban immigration and denies French guilt for deporting Jews during World War II. Melenschon promises to raise taxes for those who earn more than 400 thousand euros a year, and also join the "Bolivarian Union" with Cuba and Venezuela.
But instead of discord in the Elysee Palace of France need a president who will carry out reforms. Unlike most EU countries, she never went to painful steps to meet the free labor market, limit state control and reduce privileges. The French Labor Code is "thicker than the Bible". With limited GDP, the French government spends more than the government of Sweden.
Fillon is convinced that he will be able to change all this with the help of shock therapy. He wants to cut 500,000 jobs in the public sector, and public spending - by 100 billion euros. He refuses the 35-hour workweek, raises the retirement age by three years, to 65, and the labor code cuts by 95%.
As a supporter of the practices of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, which many Britons do not really like, Fillon takes a loyal position in business. It is important that he has the experience and patience for protracted fighting, without which reforms in France will not take place. Unfortunately, Fillon claims to the main position in the country against the backdrop of his scandalous mistakes. The publication recalls the criminal cases of illegal embezzlement of 900 thousand euros from the state budget, which Fillon gave to his children and his wife as "salaries".