For the Kremlin, the spring of this year promises to be turbulent. At the end of March anti-corruption protests passed in more than 80 cities. Also, the Russian opposition plans to take people to the streets this month. While the shares hardly pose a threat to the regime, but a fire can flare up with sparks. Can the protests turn into something more, how deep is the split in the Kremlin elites and what can separatism in Russia lead to? Not only was the "Observer" talking to the Russian political scientist, professor, the head of the SOVA expert group and a member of the public council of the House of Free Russia in Kiev by Mikhail Savva.

- The movement "Instead of Putin", to which Russian oppositionist Mikhail Khodorkovsky refers, announced protests across Russia on April 29. What are your expectations?.

- Protests on April 29 will not be a repetition of the March. I do not expect such a mass character, as it was on March 26. But during the April protests, another technology will be used - the direction of appeals with the demand to Vladimir Putin not to be nominated in the next presidential election. The shares, which Alexey Navalny called for and which took place last month, clearly showed the growing dissatisfaction of the Russians with the regime. But then the main target was Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Now the goal is different - Putin. Of course, he will not resign on April 29. But Russia and the world will receive a signal - not all Russians support this regime.

- If to speak in general about the protest movement, which has intensified recently, can the shares turn into something more and create a real threat to the current regime?.

In the coming months - unlikely. Opportunities of the regime to suppress protests are far greater than those of protesters. But we must take into account that the regime itself is increasingly degrading. "The towers of the Kremlin," as the warring factions call the power itself, lead each other to war. Kadyrovtsy against the FSB, "liberals" from the financial and economic block of the government against "siloviki" and so on. Elites of the regions are increasingly thinking about how not to be under the wreckage of the power vertical. For the presidential elections in 2018, the intensification of mass protests against the backdrop of a weakening of power may create a threat of regime collapse.

- That is, there is a split in the Kremlin elites?.

- Yes, and this split is the most important weakness of the Kremlin. The split has two dimensions. First - within the federal government. The power block, primarily the FSB, is the backbone of Putin. But these people do not know how to develop the economy or simply to slow down its decline. Therefore, the presence of specialists in the economy in the federal government is inevitable. These two towers are diametrically opposed.

The second dimension is between the federal center and regional elites. For several years, these elites are regularly intimidated by selective arrests of governors. To fight corruption, such arrests are not relevant. If it was a question of fighting corruption, it was necessary to start with the main thing - to arrest the generals of the Federal Security Service. Landing of governors is a political message.

- A common opinion: in Russia, in principle, the analogue of the Maidan is impossible in view of the mentality and a very strong authoritarian state machine. Is it really so? Or just need a critical mass of discontent?.

- This opinion is the result of "sofa analysts" of people with very short memory. Let me recall August 1991, when protests against the communist regime took place only in several cities, including Moscow. And led to its fall ... The machine of repression in Russia is really very strong. Up to the critical mass of discontent is still far away, but the discontent of Russians is growing. And not only about economic difficulties or the elimination of human rights. People with imperial conscience are disappointed in Putin. As recent events have shown, for example, the US blow to the Syrian airbase, the world is not afraid of Russia. And the Imperials supported the regime precisely in the hope that they would be feared.

- And how do you assess the probability of the so-called palace coup?.

- It is not high. Key posts are occupied by people personally loyal to Putin. And they understand that they are also responsible for the crimes of the regime. In addition, the current president of the Russian Federation has built a system of total competition in his environment. But their problem is that personal devotees are not the most capable and the most honest. Therefore, space rockets explode on takeoff, instead of terrorists grab the first ones that fall on their hands, and foreign policy adventures increasingly end in failure. The degradation of the regime is the inevitable payment for personal loyalty.

- Now everyone is talking more actively about the possible resignation of Dmitry Medvedev, from which they can make an indicative sacrifice. Do you think this is likely? Especially on the background of the fact that the rating of confidence in the premiere fell below the rating of Zhirinovsky.

- Such resignation is possible. It is likely closer to the presidential elections in Russia. First, to increase its rating. Secondly, Putin never yields to the demands of the "street". Medvedev's significance is insignificant given the very high rates in the Russian political sweepstakes. The question is whether the regime will remain or fall. But to send Medvedev in retirement is now unprofitable.

- Also on hearing the topic of centrifugal processes in Russia. Russia is a large and heterogeneous country, so it is very often predicted the breakdown. Usually it is about Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and so on. "Care" of these regions is likely, if for some reason "Moscow's grip" will weaken?.

- I have been studying separatism in Russia for about twenty years. I can confidently say that the disintegration always began when there was one condition. This is a strong and rapid weakening of the center of state power. No matter what: imperial, union or federal. The separation of a number of regions of modern Russia is entirely possible if this condition is fulfilled. And not only the North Caucasus ... Putin's election as president in 2018 significantly increases the likelihood of the collapse of the Russian Federation. The peaceful transfer of power in the event that Putin is not nominated for the elections will allow the center to retain control over the regions. But Putin's next presidential term with a high probability will lead to socio-political upheavals. And the transfer of power will not be peaceful. And this means that the federal center will weaken the grip with unpredictable consequences.

- RF as a state in principle can exist in conditions of democracy, or without the "iron grip" of the territory can not be kept?.

- The Russian Federation can quite exist in conditions of democracy. But for this, the subjects of the Federation should see the obvious benefits of membership in it. In other words, political and economic regimes should be favorable for people. In a period of transition to such a state, some territories may withdraw from the Russian Federation.

There is no legal mechanism for such separation, but it can happen by a secret way. But the retention of territory is not an absolute value. Question in purpose. The imperial goal is to preserve the current borders. The goal, proceeding from the interests of the people, is to ensure an order favorable for people.

As reported by the "Observer", oppositionist Alexei Navalny is preparing new protests against the Kremlin.

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