Apocalyptic predictions about the success of populists and "exits" were premature - the expert

25 March 2017, 11:19 | Peace
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Right-wing populists Herta Wilders did not receive a predictable victory in the elections in the Netherlands, giving way to the "People's Party for Freedom and Democracy" premier Mark Rutte. The success of populist euroskeptics from France, where the most likely candidate for president is the liberal Emmanuel Macron, to Germany, where the "Alternative for Germany" falls in the ratings, were overvalued. About this in his article for ZN. UA is written by the expert of the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Konstantin Fedorenko.

The expert notes that the Apocalyptic predictions of 2016 were very similar to the infamous predictions of Francis Fukuyama about the "end of history" of the late 80s - early 90s. Then Fukuyama, inspired by perestroika, "velvet revolutions" and the collapse of socialism, argued that numerous factors would lead to the victory of liberal democracy on a planetary scale. In 2016, numerous forecasters based on events such as Brexit and Trump's victory, as well as on the growth of Eurosceptic sentiments in many countries, asserted: our world is waiting for an era of nationalism and conflict in international relations, the EU will weaken, and the national states will regain their strength.

"In either case, an erroneous extrapolation was made based on a limited amount of data. Literally in recent months - for various reasons, but, in the opinion of some experts, in particular, in connection with the alarming actions of Trump as president - the ratings of the right in the European countries have been shaken. Of course, we can not rule out a new upsurge.

But still the events of recent months show that the predictions of radical changes in European politics and the early parade of new "exits" were premature. And in recent years we are already familiar with the panic of experts about the future of the collapse of a united Europe, which ended in nothing - the Greek referendum of 2015, following which the government had to abandon the harsh conditions of creditors, which could result in Greece's withdrawal from the euro area. In the end, after pressure from the Europeans, this was avoided unexpectedly easily, "Fedorenko writes.




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