Donald Trump, who is triumphantly returning to the helm of the state, clearly spared no expense on the inauguration ceremony. In fact, his sponsors, including Elon Musk, Jeffrey Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg, also turned out to be generous. In particular, the new US president received more than $170 million for his inauguration - a record amount for such cases, which is two and a half times higher than what Joe Biden raised for a similar event four years ago. And it is money, experts are convinced, that is the key and perhaps the only motivation for the new President of the United States, which will guide him when making any decisions, in particular geopolitical ones.
Having stated in a conversation with Focus that Trump will make diverse decisions, first assessing them with a “business look,” expert of the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” Alexander Kraev noted: “The first thing I would like to see from Trump is at least some. The only thing is that Trump really sees some kind of connection between China and Russia and understands: by putting pressure on Beijing, the Russian Federation can be forced to peace negotiations. Therefore, I think Trump will be quite tough with China, and this means more sanctions, more tariffs, more diverse pressure. But there is no more clarity yet. But there are options that are voiced by his associates, in particular Keith Kellogg, Mark Rubio, Michael Waltz." He believes Trump wants peace talks to begin and to be preceded by a ceasefire.. But Trump’s actions so far are purely tactical: cease fire and start negotiations, and then, as the cards fall. “In fact, Trump will be guided by this chaotic-emotional principle in all areas of geopolitics. At least in the near future,” says the expert.
Alexander Kraev noted: “During his first presidential term, he fulfilled no more than 35% of his loud promises. At the same time, he presents the promises that he fulfilled as unrealistic successes that no one else could seem to achieve. That is, for Trump it is not a problem to not finish something somewhere. At the same time, in the context of his statements about ending the Russian-Ukrainian war in 24 hours, we see changes - Trump is becoming more realistic and is already talking about 100 days only to formulate a negotiating agenda and six months for “at least something to start”. In other words, Trump became a realist and realized that it was a priori unrealistic to simply call Putin and Zelensky and stop the war." According to the expert, the shortest way to end the war in 24 hours is surrender. Due to his character traits, Trump cannot give in to Putin, since it is, by definition, unacceptable for him to look weak.
In this aspect, Alexander Kraev emphasizes, Ukraine can give Trump a victory, because it is in Ukraine that “he can wipe the nose of the “terrible and terrible” Putin.”. “Plus, Ukraine can open the way for investment, strengthening NATO and for the United States to spend less money on Europe, because Ukraine in the Alliance is cheaper than Ukraine outside NATO. Therefore, the choice for Trump is to again give hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine for several years so that it can defend itself or not pay a penny, because Ukraine will be in NATO. The benefits are obvious. Thus, both from the point of view of Trump’s character, Ukraine is better, and from the point of view of money, Ukraine is cheaper. “Putin cannot give this to Trump in return,” the expert believes. The analyst is convinced that with the arrival of Donald Trump in the Oval Office, the scales are tipping in favor of Ukraine.
Stressing in a conversation with Focus that any US dominance in the external dimension is extremely important for Donald Trump, international affairs expert, director of the Ukrainian Meridian Center for Public Research Dmitry Levus noted: “You just need to remember his slogan Make America Great Again. It is in this context, key, paradigm that one should perceive, for example, Trump’s thoughts on Greenland, Canada, Mexico and the like. But the story of Russia’s war against Ukraine, as for me, is somewhat out of line with this slogan. That is, it is clear that for Ukraine the most acceptable would be US dominance, primarily over the Russian Federation, but so far here we see attempts to develop a dialogue with the Kremlin in the absence of the drastic steps inherent in Trump."
The expert considers it extremely positive that in the context of constant communication with President Zelensky, Ukrainian diplomacy, as well as the parallel receipt of secret information regarding how the war is going and what it is, assessments that the war can be ended have disappeared from Donald Trump’s vocabulary.
“At the same time, we can hardly say today that the topic of our confrontation with the Russian Federation will become one that the United States will resolve as quickly as possible. Yes, of course, this is a priority for Trump, but so far we see that we are only processing available information and building a clear position. President Zelensky’s visit to Poland is important in this aspect, since official Warsaw has long been the conductor of American policy in Eastern Europe,” notes Dmitry Levus.
In his opinion, Trump’s “contact with reality” now determines the changes in his rhetoric: “In my opinion, there is an important positive in the change in Trump’s rhetoric. Why? Because, for example, Donald Trump’s radical rhetoric regarding Greenland and Canada is post-election rhetoric, while with Ukraine everything is happening just the opposite. That is, if earlier Trump said that the Russian-Ukrainian war could be completed in a matter of hours, then when confronted with reality, his romanticism about this dissipated. Is this good for us? It’s good, because the story that we are now “cutting everyone with a saber” has finally ended, and Ukraine and the world as a whole are waiting for Donald Trump to make informed decisions.”.
Ivan Us, chief consultant at the Center for Foreign Policy Research at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, is convinced that, above all, Trump will continue to do what he wanted during his first presidential term..
“Trump’s priority in this regard is a significant and deep modernization of international trade and the World Trade Organization (WTO), as a kind of embodiment of the institutional component of trade. Let me remind you in passing that during his first presidential term, Trump voiced statements about the likely withdrawal of the United States from the WTO. I believe that Trump will now demand a deep revision of the rules of this organization, including the expulsion of a country from it (I would like the Russian Federation to finally be shown the door) if it does not meet certain standards,” the expert states in a conversation with Focus.
As for relations with the EU, Ivan Us is convinced that Trump’s promises will be realized, including his demands to increase the EU’s purchase of natural resources from the United States.
“But if we talk about China, the situation here looks quite interesting. In Trump's circle there are those who support a hard anti-China line, and those (including Elon Musk) who take a pro-China position. Therefore, we can make a cautious assumption that the first question after Trump arrives in the Oval Office will be when he will fall out with Musk. I think that already in the first half of this year they will cease to be a single team. Regarding Russia. There are, of course, very high expectations in Ukraine, but whether Trump’s policy will be really tough towards the Russian Federation is a big question, since he has made many statements that actually contradict each other, because he is guided by some kind of business calculations, pushing back.
Political scientist Vladimir Fesenko is convinced that Donald Trump is not about geopolitics, but about geoeconomics. In particular, in a conversation with Focus, the expert noted the following: “The new-old US President is primarily about the economic interests of the United States, which he views through the prism of his personal business experience. Geopolitics actually interests him less. He will not be tough on China, nor will he take a belligerent line towards Greenland or Canada.. Trump doesn't like wars because they hurt business. Therefore, he will negotiate, but do it harshly and aggressively. I think Trump was quite sincere when he said he wanted to end all wars..
But this does not mean that he will do everything possible and impossible for this. Something will work out for him? Fine. And if not? He'll just drop the matter. And this also applies to the Russian-Ukrainian war."
Vladimir Fesenko predicts that Donald Trump will try, on certain compromise principles, soon after returning to the White House to reach an agreement with Ukraine and the Russian Federation to end the war, but if he fails to achieve something in the coming months, then after a while he will “give up” and.