In an interview with American podcaster Lex Friedman, among other things, President Vladimir Zelensky clearly outlined the procedure for negotiations to end the war with the Russian Federation.
" We agree with him how we can stop the war and Putin. If the American leader offers strong security guarantees for Ukraine, then after that there may be a conversation with the Russians. And just like that, and not just the three of us sat down at once,” the head of state emphasized, separately emphasizing that Europe also had a voice, “because Europe will look at us and at Trump.”. Along the way, Zelensky added that virtually all European leaders always ask about his conversations or meetings with Trump. At the same time, the president suggested that Trump could find himself in a difficult political position if he reaches a ceasefire without providing Ukraine with adequate security guarantees. " Force him to do what is necessary to end the war - this is important,” the president concluded, adding that Putin’s goal is to quarrel with Trump and end the occupation of Ukrainian territory.
During the election campaign, we recall that Donald Trump repeatedly boasted of his good and even friendly relations with Putin and repeatedly publicly promised, if elected, to end the Russian-Ukrainian war within 24 hours.
It doesn’t take much time to start negotiations with the Americans, political scientist Maxim Dzhigun notes in a conversation with Focus, since Trump seeks a quick peace as one of his first victories as president. At the same time, the expert notes, the key question is on what conditions it will be possible to reach specific and clear agreements: “In fact, Zelensky’s interview with Friedman is aimed at giving a slightly greater inclusion of the newly elected US President’s entourage into the situation. It is obvious that there will be no restrictions or delays in the meeting with Trump, but whether it will be possible to find very specific points of contact with him that will allow us to begin negotiations is the question. However, the wishes that Ukraine puts forward will not necessarily be reflected, unfortunately, in the position of Trump himself, whose team is forming its own feeling about how to end this war."
Without ruling out the scenario when, during Zelensky’s meeting with Trump, counter-proposals from the Americans will be made, the expert added: “Depending on whether official Kyiv agrees to the US proposals, it will be clear whether it makes sense to involve the Russian Federation in this process. But the proposals that were made in Zelensky’s interview with Friedman are quite relevant and do not contain anything impossible. Moreover, as for me, the number of, let’s say, ultimatum wishes on our part, such as accepting the entire territory into NATO or providing an insane amount of weapons for counter-offensive actions, is noticeably decreasing. This is not the case. But we are talking about a specific number of deterrent weapons and other security guarantees that will weaken Putin’s appetite for an offensive in the near future. That is, Ukraine does not offer anything that Trump, having the political will to do so, could not implement."
Considering that Ukraine does not talk about war until the last bullet and a return to the borders of 1991, notes Maxim Dzhigun, the ability to agree with the Americans on some kind of intermediate option for suspending the war now looks quite realistic.
Having called the theses of the President of Ukraine regarding peace in an interview with Friedman a “specific strategy,” political scientist Vladimir Fesenko, in a conversation with Focus, stated: “Generally speaking, Zelensky outlined our logic of how negotiations to end the war should take place. But Putin has a similar logic, who also wants negotiations with Trump first. Be that as it may, in my opinion, the logic of the negotiations will be dictated not at the negotiating table, but by the situation on the battlefield, depending on what strategy and tactics the Trump team chooses. I don’t think that the logic outlined by Zelensky can work, although it can and should be proposed. This is the correct approach, but the most likely scenario is that both Trump and his negotiators will demand direct negotiations with the Russian Federation, possibly with their own participation. In general, without the Americans, these negotiations will not yield any results." Modeling the further situation, the political scientist suggested that the United States would attempt to immediately begin negotiations for three (Kyiv, Washington, Moscow).
Speaking about strong security guarantees for Ukraine from the United States, as a prerequisite for contact with Putin, Vladimir Fesenko noted: “It is the issue of security guarantees, and not territories, that will be one of the key ones for us in negotiations to end the war. The issue of occupied territories is a dead end. That is, there is an absolutely stalemate situation where no compromise is possible even theoretically. What exactly are these security guarantees Unfortunately, we do not yet know the US position. But we know what probable concessions to the Russian Federation the Americans are ready to make to end the war, in particular regarding Ukraine and NATO. By the way, I think this is a mistaken step by the Trump team, because, having already had some proposals, the Russians will demand even more."
The most important question, according to Vladimir Fesenko, is how Trump will act when he finally understands that Russians don’t really want compromises, and perceive any concessions as a sign of weakness. At the same time, the political scientist noted: “It should be clearly understood that even the well-known fifth article of NATO is not an absolute guarantee of security. Potentially, Article 5 is the most effective, but no one knows for sure how it will work in practice.. And if Trump is ready to give up Ukraine’s membership in NATO in order to stop the war, we will have no choice but to look for alternative options, and this is either security guarantees for Ukraine from the United States on a bilateral basis (about the same as Washington provides.
The political scientist expressed doubt that the United States will provide Ukraine with the Tomahawk deterrence guarantee paradigm, and also summarized: “We will most likely have to develop our own missile weapons.”.
In general, according to Fesenko, the main factor in deterring Russia and guaranteeing security in the future can be two components: a strong Armed Forces of Ukraine with powerful weapons and systemic military-economic support for the allies at the same level that Kyiv had and has during a full-scale war.
The foundation, the political scientist states, for this has already been laid in the security agreements that Ukraine has signed with a number of states. Therefore, the key nuance is that they work de facto even after the end of hostilities. The expert predicts that if the war ends, Ukraine will implement a strategy of defense alliances with some European countries, in particular with Poland, the Baltic countries, Northern European and some countries of continental Europe.