" Of course, artillery! said General Patton, and he already knew what he was saying. Now his words are even more true: artillery inflicts 85% of losses on the enemy! Whereas in pre-war regulations it was believed that this share would be 60–70%.
This is mainly due to the smaller than expected contribution of aviation. The RF Armed Forces, despite repeated boastful reports, have not been able to destroy the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defense, therefore, Russian aviation, having suffered heavy losses, is not able to make a significant contribution to hostilities, but the Ukrainian Air Force is simply small. The tank forces of Russia, faced with the massive use of javelins and other effective anti-tank weapons, as well as being ugly controlled and used, suffered simply monstrous losses (more than three thousand vehicles, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), and their miserable remnants are now used from closed positions,.
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Moreover, this is a twice forced step, and the second reason was what a truly strategic turning point in the war means, namely: if there are still shells for tank guns, then Russian artillery is experiencing an increasingly aggravated shell hunger. If in July it fired up to 60 thousand shots per day (15–20 times more than Ukrainian artillery), demolishing everything in front of it with a fire shaft, which ensured the advancement of Russian troops, then in September alarm bells rang and soon tens of thousands of tons had to be taken out. They only lasted a couple of months to maintain military pants, but since the beginning of December, there have been frequent reports of an acute shortage of shells in the RF Armed Forces. Well, now this deficit is obvious, and the military industry is not able to compensate for it..
The use of MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems) HIMARS to destroy ammunition depots led to shell hunger, which not only significantly reduced the available stocks, but also greatly complicated the logistics of supplies. Now the shells must be brought from the rear warehouses located at great distances from the front line. Whereas the United States made an invaluable gift to Ukraine in December - they found 100 thousand tank shells and tens of thousands of Soviet artillery calibers. In January, the West again rummaged through the world's bottomholes and ensured the continued supply of these calibers.. In addition, in December, Ukraine began its own production of 122-mm and 152-mm shells.. All this made it possible to strengthen the counter-battery fight..
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Therefore, the tactics of the fire shaft remained in the past and it was replaced by the tactics of human waves - according to the old Russian tradition, the positions of the enemy are filled up with the bodies of soldiers. For this reason, Russia will be defeated. For the superiority in artillery has passed to Ukraine and now it fires up to six thousand rounds a day. This is no more than the enemy, but more accurate and more efficient.
An order of magnitude better communications and much more modern target detection systems (satellite data, excellent radio reconnaissance, massive and skillful use of drones) and fire control systems affect. On the tablets (it is clear that electronic ones) of the crew commanders, all targets are shown in real time, all shooting parameters are indicated, and the program developed by the Ukrainians tells you which guns are best to hit them, which allows you to disperse firing positions over a decent area, sharply reducing the effectiveness of counter-battery return fire.
I repeat: the provision of Soviet-caliber shells is extremely important, because, despite the supply by the West of several hundred excellent 155-mm trailed howitzers and more than hundreds of powerful self-propelled guns, the Soviet systems still bear the brunt of the fighting, fortunately, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to. Yes, near Liman and especially at the Kupyansk-Uzlovoy station, rich warehouses and trains with ammunition were captured, but this war is extremely voracious in terms of artillery and has already eaten everything.
In addition, Western artillery systems turned out to be complex and delicate, even the famous American howitzers “three axes” are reliable, by Western standards, the workhorses of the war, not to mention the French Caesar self-propelled guns.. They do not withstand the extremely high intensity of fire required in this war, and already up to a third of them had to be sent for repairs, for which special repair shops were opened in Poland and Slovakia.. However, these are already technical details that are successfully solved. I note by the way that the West should be quite grateful to Ukraine for the invaluable opportunity to test its military equipment in a real big war and for its advertising, without incurring losses in personnel.
In general, we can say that Ukraine is winning the main component of the current war, and its superiority will only grow. Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny not without reason considers the priority delivery of 500 howitzers by the West. And they will be delivered, there is no doubt about it. Russia can delay its defeat in only one way: throwing into the fire of war new tens and hundreds of thousands of those who are not called cannon fodder for nothing.. This is a very accurate name..
Help from the West.
Without her, Ukraine would not have survived. Yes, thanks to the high morale and valor of the armed forces, as well as the best training of the troops, she was able to skillfully use the egregious miscalculations of the Russian command and political leadership, as well as the monstrous lack of professionalism and the general unpreparedness of the RF Armed Forces for war, brilliantly winning its first stage. The territories of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and most of the Kharkov regions were liberated from the invaders. But from late April to mid-August, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hardly held back the onslaught of the invaders - they significantly outnumbered them in the intensity of artillery fire and slowly squeezed them out of their positions, while wiping entire large cities from the face of the earth: Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Lisichansk. For example, the house of my Mariupol cousin is the only one in the quarter that survived, although it was beaten by fragments, there are only ruins around. It stands opposite Azovstal. The cousin herself with her daughter's family miraculously made her way to Germany in March - through the Crimea, Russia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. In home slippers - they gave 40 minutes for training. By the way, these are cities with a predominantly Russian-speaking population..
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The situation began to change with the advent of Western artillery systems on the front, and each new war crime of the Russians leads to an increase in this assistance.. The other day, Bloomberg compiled a list of weapons that Ukraine has received from the allies since the start of a full-scale war or is going to receive soon.. Bloomberg cites data from the Dutch defense analytics and military research website Oryx.. The agency clarifies that these data are approximate.. They may include weapons promised but not delivered.. Let's single out artillery, although tanks should also be taken into account, all the more so since they play the role of self-propelled guns in the ongoing positional war.
In total, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and other countries delivered 410 Soviet-era tanks. Seems like a lot. But war is war, this is a double-edged affair, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also suffer losses in tanks, and experts estimate them at 20-30 vehicles per month. The fighting has been going on for many months, so draw your own conclusions. Yes, the UK has promised to send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, Poland wants to provide a company of Leopard 2 tanks - but only if other NATO allies make similar commitments. But discussions continue in the US and Germany about whether they can send battle tanks. Yes, France has announced it will donate an unspecified number of AMX-10RC wheeled tanks; yes, the USA and Germany promise to provide 50 and 40 excellent Bradley and Marder combat vehicles, but in general it is clear that the supply of a more or less serious number of serious vehicles is not a quick matter. In addition, the Leopards, which for many reasons are preferable to the American Abrams for Ukraine, are extremely few in Germany itself (see. review B. Lebedev). Unless Russia commits another terrible atrocity and pushes the West to the most decisive steps.
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So, summing up, we can conclude that the outcome of the war will be decided by artillery. The Allies supplied 300 towed howitzers, of which more than 210 155-mm howitzers M777 (the same \; in total, more than 400 units of self-propelled artillery will be delivered, of which 180 are on order (since the summer, more than 20 155-mm howitzers from the UK at the front, 18 each from Poland, Germany, the USA and other countries). Fresh information: The Pentagon persuaded Israel to transfer 300,000 155-mm shells to Ukraine. About half of them have already been sent to their destination..
And even more recent and encouraging news in the context of our review: in the next military aid package, the largest, according to CNN, the United States promises to supply Ukraine with a million 152-mm shells from Israeli warehouses. This will significantly increase the intensity of fire just at the time of the imminent decisive clash.. Other good news from the Friday meeting of the Contact Group for the Defense of Ukraine in Ramstein is quite possible..
Next: MLRS - 95 units, including 38 HIMARS systems and more than 40 Soviet-era 122-mm multiple launch rocket systems from Poland and the Czech Republic.
Yes, artillery will decide everything - and it will decide in favor of Ukraine.
It is clear that the war will apparently be long and undoubtedly difficult - the Russians do not give up, but its outcome is a foregone conclusion.. For Ukraine, this is a matter of the survival of the nation, but the West has finally woken up, horrified by its complacency and indiscretion, has stopped chewing Merkel’s snot (this expression is now becoming more popular in Germany) and this time intends to complete the long overdue and overripe business - the main thing. Carthago delenda est!
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