The presidential campaign has divided voters into those who are waiting for improvement after the elections, and those who want no deterioration. The first are looking for their favorite among the applicants. The second are ready to vote for the current head of state, - Pavel Kazarin writes in a column on "Crimea. Realities ".

But the peculiarity is that any next president will be worse than the current one.. Even if the new will be valid.

First, it’s not worth waiting for economic miracles from the next president.. For one simple reason. Ukraine is not a sovereign in its economic policy. The current relative stability is the result of Western financial support.. A more or less stable hryvnia rate and cautious economic growth is only a consequence of the fact that official Kiev is doing its homework. International donors ask him.

If he stops to follow these recommendations - the financial crane will be closed. If he starts to reduce tariffs, print money and otherwise play in the attraction of unprecedented generosity, then stability will end.. Because international donors will not pay for it. And what happens next is well known..

Inflation. Currency rate fall. Attempts of state regulation of prices. Black market - including currency market. Product shortage. Mathematics is impartial - it only punishes for not knowing its laws..

Therefore, there will not be any breakthroughs in this direction. Do not cherish illusions. Any reforms and any liberalization can give only a delayed effect, but not a momentary one.. The next day after the second round, the Ukrainians will wake up exactly in the same country in which they fell asleep. Unless the next president - whoever he is - decides that he will manage to deceive the economic rules. Then we all have a dark future..

However, the next president is doomed to be weak not only for this reason..

He will be weak also because he is elected in two rounds.. And the second round is a vote not so much “for”, as “against”. The next president of Ukraine will take his seat not because of his merits, but because of the shortcomings of his competitors. His initial positioning is “lesser evil” status.. And the level of starting public legitimacy will be a priori less compared to those lucky enough to win in the first round..

The country will peer into the triumphant race with incredulous squint. Honeymoon expectations will be shorter. The level of distrust is higher. The number of critics - more. All this will lead to the fact that the next president’s space for decisive maneuvers will clearly be. And the credibility of the voters - less.

Third, the new president will not be able to bring peace. For the simple reason that the keys to the world are in the Kremlin, and not in Bankova. The winner of the second round will not be able to return the Ukrainian political prisoners. Will not stop the funerals from the front. Will not return the occupied territories under the control of Kiev. Any attempt to force the liberation of Donbass will only lead to the fact that the Russian army will cease to pretend that it is not there. And the fate of the sanctions pressure on Russia will be questionable - Washington has repeatedly warned Kiev about this in direct text. So, whoever is in the presidential chair, the only way to remove the war from the agenda is surrender.. Therefore, there is no reason to dream about the world..

Fourth, in 2019, Ukraine will have to repay debts. Several billion dollars will go to service public debt. The country will have to go on the edge of economic stability. Any inhabitant of Bank will have to start their cadence from economy mode.. And the frustration of exaggerated philistine expectations will certainly have an effect on the autumn parliamentary elections..

Because the next parliament will be much more fractional and disorganized. It will be much more populists and lawyers of the Kremlin, and Moscow will try to seat its protege in a chair. Reality will require unpopular reforms. Society will demand instant happiness. Sponsors will demand lobbying. And it may well be that on the background of the new parliament we will remember the current one with nostalgia.

And this scenario does not depend on the surname of your favorite.

Anyone taking the presidency in 2019 will be in a time pressure situation.. Philistine expectations will be a hammer. Economy and the real balance of power - the anvil. Any reforms - if they are destined to happen - will only have an effect over time.. And if you are waiting for a miracle, you will have to disappoint.

Miracle will not be.

Reprinted with permission from Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty Also join the TSN group.. Blogs on facebook and stay tuned for updates!.