In recent weeks, pro-Russian militants have reduced the activity of shelling in the Donbas. On some sectors of the front line, the invaders depict a grain ceasefire, regrouping their forces and means. At the same time, the escalation may be escalated with the beginning of the election campaign in Ukraine. The Kremlin is going to use the military factor in order to push pro-Russian candidates to elections in Ukraine. This opinion was voiced by Apostrophe coordinator of the group "Information Resistance" People's Deputy Dmitry Tymchuk.

In recent weeks, in the Donbas, we do not see a big drop (the number of shelling). In particular, if taken for weeks (from Wednesday to Wednesday), then during the past week, the militants carried out 165 shelling from prohibited weapons, and for this - 135. That is, I would not talk about some kind of sharp de-escalation.

It is possible that the decrease in the activity of militants is due to the fact that they are trying to depict a grain truce in certain areas. But they use it to regroup their forces and means. We also see that preparations are being made actively - the creation of new positions, strong points, whole defense areas. And it is not profitable for the invaders to carry out intensified shelling in these sectors, since a return is arriving. In this case, it becomes quite problematic to carry out engineering work, given that recently occupiers are actively attracting civilians.

It is even possible to trace the separatist resources of stories that local residents in a single impulse came out to "help" the militiamen - dig trenches, build dugouts and so on. Therefore, in these areas, there is no point in further shelling, as the local population will suffer from retaliatory fire. And given that the local population is not willingly going to these jobs, the shelling will increase the degree of discontent among residents in the occupied territories.

Relative silence on the part of the militants is caused precisely by this. But it is not necessary to talk about the tendency to reduce the activity of militants. In some areas, the invaders retain their fire activity, on others the activity decreases, as the militants are settling their positions, creating new ones..

We were waiting for the activity of the invaders after the meeting of Putin and Trump, but we do not see a sharp change in the picture of the fighting. Based on Putin's meeting with Trump, there were no key decisions on the Donbass. But it is possible that in the future these decisions will be taken and the situation in Donbass will depend on them.

What to expect next?.

If there are no serious agreements between Russia and the United States on Ukraine, it is quite obvious that the military factor will play its role in the election campaign in Ukraine.

That is, Putin, pushing his candidates, will draw attention to events in the Donbass by escalating the conflict. This will be done in order to update the issue of the so-called peace. And we well know the rhetoric on which they will leave - this is a peaceful dialogue, criticism of the war party, that is, the ruling coalition. Pro-Putin candidates here will point out what is happening in the Donbass, and say that there is only one way out - that political forces come to power that talk about peace.