Merkel tries to understand what can be agreed with Putin, and what can not be agreed upon.

Today's meeting between Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi is not just an ordinary conversation that should inevitably occur after the formation of a new German ruling coalition and Putin's predicted victory in the election of the head of state.

This is a meeting in the new political conditions. Merkel will prioritize the results of this conversation. For yourself and for the West. What you can talk with Putin in the near future. What can I agree on. And about what to agree it will not be possible.

It is noteworthy that Merkel began to prioritize these priorities even before departure. When she listed the topics of her conversation with Putin, she singled out Iran, Syria and Ukraine. It is in this order. And in this there is obvious political logic.

The situation with Iran is a new old crisis. And the crisis is unusual. In this crisis, after President Donald Trump's refusal from the nuclear agreement with Iran, the European Union, Russia and China are on the same side of the confrontation, and the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia on the other. At the same time, confrontation can lead to economic warfare.

The EU already declares its readiness to punish European companies that will implement the American decision to resume sanctions. The US, in turn, is ready to punish companies that do not obey Trump's decision.

This decision has two main beneficiaries - Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, but there are also those who lost - Trump, who suddenly ceases to be the leader of the solidary Western world and European leaders who actually remain without American support in difficult times.

Merkel is important to understand how one can count on Russian support in resisting the American decision in a situation where the Europeans themselves retain sanctions against Russia.

And then we turn to the following topics of her talks with Putin - Syria and Ukraine. In Syria, Putin is trying to keep his ally Assad. But the Syrian issue is losing its independence on the background of the conflict over Iran. Moreover, now Syria is a polygon of the Iranian-American confrontation and confrontation between Iran and Israel.

In Syria, Europeans have nothing to offer Putin. They can only watch the expansion of the war, which, if there is no compromise on the Iranian deal, will soon seize the territory of Lebanon - if Iran wants to transfer it to the territory of Israel and Russia's willingness to remain neutral in the event of a direct clash between Tehran and the Jewish state (neutrality is The maximum that Netanyahu can get from Putin. But it will not hurt anything to supply Russian weapons to Iran).

Remains Ukraine. Of course, Merkel would very much like Putin to make concessions in the Donbas, would allow the EU to abandon the lion's share of sanctions and negotiate with the Kremlin on joint opposition to the White House without moral hesitation. But Merkel understands perfectly well that in the current situation - when Putin needs Europe and the price of oil is growing - it will not be possible to achieve prudence from him.

The maximum that can be counted on is that it does not go to aggravation, maintains the status quo in the Donbas, or it can reduce the intensity of the military confrontation. And this is exactly what Europeans need today. Let Americans and Russians measure their forces in the Middle East, and in Europe it will be as quiet as possible.

It is clear that this is a schematic campaign. Putin can decide that in the new conditions he can afford anything, anything and go on exacerbating wherever possible.

He will blackmail Merkel with this exacerbation - in exchange, for example, to build the "Nord Stream-2" or a gradual refusal of sanctions in response to Russia's decorative concessions in the Donbass. Merkel will try to keep him from this aggravation to retain and preserve the sanctions positions.

Just will not be anyone. Especially Merkel, who is trying to play chess on a board that other politicians - above all Putin and Trump - have knocked him backwards.

Original.