A day after the wave of protests led to an extraordinary (and unexpected) victory - the forced resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan - his Republican Party still does not particularly want to release the reins from its hands. Opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan may be elected new prime minister on parliamentary vote on May 8 (at the time of the publication of the transfer, the parliament voted to appoint Pashinyan - ed..
Time will tell whether Sargsyan's resignation on April 23 was a sincere digression from one-party leadership of the country or no more than a symbolic concession to the protesters. The way of Armenia towards a democratic future is likely to be tortuous and difficult.
After making constitutional changes in 2015 that turned Armenia into a parliamentary state, Sargsyan (president from 2008 to 2018) tried to change from the now symbolic position of the president to the prime minister's office. He was elected on April 17.
However, Armenians did not swallow this usurpation of power. After the election of Sargsyan, thousands of citizens, mostly young people, took to the streets to demonstrate by peaceful protest their reluctance to see him in power. Protesters blocked roads and settled outside government buildings.
As a result of political pressure, Sargsyan was forced to meet with Pashinyan. After their conversation on April 22, Pashinyan was arrested, but the public indignation was so strong that the next day he was released, and Sargsyan resigned. Until a new leader is elected, former Prime Minister of Armenia Karen Karapetyan will be acting prime minister.
The popular demand for democratic changes has been brewing in Armenia for some time, since the re-election of Sargsyan for the second five-year presidential term in 2013 in the light of numerous statements about electoral fraud and the absence of opposition candidates. Although the recent protests successfully led Sargsyan to resign, Karapetyan is his old comrade-in-arms.
Can this new wave of political protests successfully resist the flourishing postmodern constitutional dictatorship in Armenia? Or is it just the last vain attempt to change the unchanged Armenian political system? There are no simple answers to these questions, the background of recent events remains unclear, which is why they should be carefully monitored. Armenians are tired of their corrupt politicians, it's time for the world to notice and act on it.
Nevertheless, Armenia's dependence on Russia in the sphere of military support, trade and energy created the impression that any Western intervention would lead to nothing. Armenia is culturally and historically connected with Russia. Her relations with Turkey remain tense. Both these circumstances push the country away from the West and NATO, discouraging Europe and the US from interacting with it. For Armenians, the apathetic acceptance of the status quo by the West means a bleak future with limited political freedom and virtually no economic opportunities. If the West does not begin to build economic and political bridges with Armenia, everything that this protest movement has achieved will dissipate over time.
Nevertheless, many Armenians want to live in a healthy independent state, governed by laws, and not by corrupt puppets of the Kremlin. The conflict between democracy and dictatorship, economic prospects and nepotism is critically important for the current geopolitical situation, and it has fully manifested itself now in the Armenian political crossroads.
In the light of these circumstances, the current protest movement should not be ignored. The stakes in Armenia are great not only for the Armenians themselves, but also for international democratic norms and American interests in the contested border areas between the European Union and Russia.
The time of the Republican Party in Armenia was marked by disputable electoral mechanisms, corruption and repression. This reality and the regime that built it must be condemned by European and American political leaders. Local forces should be supported that seek transparency. If the EU and the United States want to remain defenders of world democracy, the Armenian position can not be ignored. After all, its consequences will go far beyond the Armenian borders, in other countries that find themselves in similar circumstances.
Peaceful popular resistance, recently shaken Armenia - everyone is sadly familiar. Turks, Russians, Ukrainians and Georgians - all risked their lives and status, protesting the excessive pressure of the authorities, the destruction of political freedoms and economic opportunities. Along the borders of the EU and Russia, this happens in almost every country trying to get rid of the Soviet heritage. They want a market economy, not an economy based on gangster privatization by government structures and their friends. They want an active democracy, not a parody of elections, where one single party, deprived of opponents, prefers. They want geopolitical independence, not surrender of sovereignty to Moscow.
The relative silence of Moscow against the Armenian "velvet revolution" should not be taken for granted. If Russia feels that its relations with Armenia are threatened, it will do everything possible to isolate democratic reformers, corrupt them or get rid of them. As before in Georgia and Ukraine, Moscow still has something to say.
The use of Russian military forces in Armenia is unlikely. Economic pressure, blackmail by depriving Armenia of military assistance needed in Nagorno-Karabakh or strengthening ties with Azerbaijan will be used much sooner. If the West does nothing to confirm the achievements of the current democratic protest, everything will change in Armenia just enough so that it does not change. In other words, the reforms will be conducted only for the species, Armenia will remain a poor Russian appendage.
For American and European politicians, stability in troubled countries in the Russian sphere of influence is best achieved by establishing there independent and democratic states. The dictatorship serves only to strengthen dependence on Moscow. If the United States is serious about opposing Moscow and defending the European-Russian border from the return of Russian imperialism, situations like the Armenian one require real support. If American and European politicians want to consistently defend democracy and maintain order in the world - Armenians should not be left alone to resist the oligarchic regime and systemic corruption.
Many Armenians are proud of their role in the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Perhaps one day they will be just as proud of everyone's small participation in the confrontation of postmodern dictators. American and European political leaders - heirs of the free spirit of Europe and victory in the Cold War. It will be sad to see how this heritage is rotting around Russia's borders just because the West prefers to remain silent.
Read the original text on the Atlantic Council Join the TSN group. Blogs on facebook and follow the updates of the section!.