Militants intensified military operations in the zone of Operation of the United Forces in Donbass. Alexei Arestovich told what the current aggravation of the fighting is due to and what to expect next.

Most likely, there was a rotation of the Russian troops and the Russian command in the Donbass: the guys from the Far East stopped by, and they are usually zealous. For four years we realized that the Far Eastern rotation is always an exacerbation. Any rotation is an exacerbation. But the Far East - especially, because there are many [ethnic] Ukrainians. Well, more Buryats. A Buryats with Ukrainians - an explosive mixture. That is, new commanders have arrived, they need to somehow make money, and they drive the troops forward. This is a psychological judgment.

Secondly, it's just the beginning of hostilities. In the same place, everything has blossomed - the so-called "zelenka", which completely changes the nature of the fighting, because it provides additional opportunities. On Sunday, for example, there was an ambush on our troops. From a bare forest or field to the reconnaissance-sabotage group it is very difficult to ambush someone to attack. And now it is much easier, so all the intelligence groups start to "catch" each other. Artillery troops are also much easier to hide and so on.. That is, this change in the weather, the new season. Here are two main reasons.

Thirdly, there is a general political situation: the negotiations [of Vladislav Surkov's assistant to the President of the Russian Federation with the US State Department's Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt] Volcker failed, no one is going to put up and introduce peacekeepers, Vladimir Vladimirovich's inauguration, Russia "insulted" in Syria. The Russians, however, have such an attitude: "If we are beaten in Syria, we are responsible in Ukraine".

I think this is a situational aggravation. Perhaps an attempt to capture some forester's house. Serious changes should not be, because for them there are no grounds.

If Russia is preparing some great dirty trick, we will see it in a month, because Russian citizens themselves will fill up the Internet with photographs of echelons with equipment that are being selected to our borders. It will be seen that troops have entered the territory of Ukraine, NATO will say so and so on.

For a large-scale offensive, Russia needs to accumulate forces. And the Russians are accumulating strength so much that in three months this is evident even to housewives. There are no signs of a change of situation. Now there are clashes of units in the gray zone, just more intense than in winter.

Source: "Apostrophe".