When I learned about the resignation of former Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan from the post of Prime Minister of the country, I immediately recalled the congratulation that was sent to former colleague Vladimir Putin immediately after his election to the post of head of government. Sent, although by protocol I did not have to do it - Sargsyan could congratulate and Dmitry Medvedev. Sent, although against the background of mass protests could even wait a few days, see what would happen.

But Putin is not one to wait. In 2004, he was congratulated by Viktor Yanukovych twice - and with the same success that Sargsyan. From these persistent congratulations - or, rather, the desire to fight for power, whatever it takes - soon it will be possible to compile a whole book.

By the way, the Armenian situation in 2018 is similar to the Ukrainian 2004 not by the congratulations of Putin. The very model of transition to a parliamentary republic is once again explosive for authoritarianism.

Ukrainian 2004, as is known, was held under the sign of the attempts of then-President Leonid Kuchma - who served two terms as Sargsyan and tried to stay in power - to turn the country into a parliamentary republic (probably with himself as prime minister). Kuchma's attempts were blocked by both the main contenders for power - and the "heir" Yanukovych, and the leader of the opposition Yushchenko. And most importantly, they were not supported by the Kremlin, where they were put on Yanukovych and did not want to listen to explanations that the future president would become a ceremonial figure, and not a full-fledged head of state. Putin needed Yanukovych, not Kuchma.

But Yanukovych's falsified election turned into the first Maidan - in fact the same "velvet revolution" - and the parliamentary-presidential republic, which at least exists in Ukraine to this day, with a break for the usurpation of Yanukovych. In fact, with his attempts to change the country's structure, Kuchma himself threw an anthill, returned politics to Ukraine, made the elite believe that much depends on them, and not only on the omnipotent first person. And the elites, in turn, turned to the people - there was a classic coincidence of interests. Both in Ukraine and in Armenia.

Of course, this does not mean that the situation in Armenia will develop along the Ukrainian path. In Ukrainian politics, the main thing was not the opposition of authoritarianism of democracy, presidential rule to parliamentarism, Yushchenko - Yanukovych. The main was the choice of the vector - with Russia or with the West. Armenia, caught in the traps of Karabakh before the declaration of independence, this choice is very difficult to make.

The unresolved Karabakh issue is simultaneously the lack of security guarantees for Armenia by Azerbaijan and Turkey. And Russia, having long understood all the advantages of the sponsor of this security and the warmonger of the conflict at the same time, is not the choice of Armenia, but the constant of its existence. Therefore, it is understandable why the Armenian "velvet revolution" in Moscow reacts much more calmly than on the Ukrainian or Georgian.

But at the same time Armenian events for Moscow are much more dangerous than Ukrainian ones. Because they prove: people do not want to tolerate disdain for themselves, not only when it comes to choosing a geopolitical vector. Yes, in fact, Moscow itself often impose this choice. The majority of people who chanted in 2013 on the Kyiv Maydan "zeka ghet!", Least of all thought about Europe and Putin, and most of all - about injustice and urkagana. And the fact that Putin selflessly supported the urkagan only emphasized the wisdom of the road to the West. But this is simply because Ukrainians had much to do not only from Yanukovych, but also from Moscow.

Armenia has nowhere to go by and large.

How not so long ago, there was no escape for the residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia - but they took to the streets when Moscow tried to impose on them another Gauleiter from the Cheka (and eventually, of course, imposed, breaking through the knee). Yes, all politicians in these self-proclaimed republics were pro-Russian, but people wanted one thing - to choose their own power. Sami. Without Putin.

And if such desires appear even where the political situation looks hopeless, and the elite - petrified, then why one day they can not arise from the Russians themselves? Just choose your own authority. Without Putin and his congratulations.

Original.