The last days of the hot nuclear breathing of the Third World began to be felt very close. Its probability began to discuss not only the experts of the Apocalypse, but also quite professional analysts.

And for that there were reasons.

What the annexation of Russia to the Crimea could not, the invasion of Donbass, the entry into Syria, the support of its president Bashar Assad, who likes to use illegal chemical weapons against civilians, could poison the former intelligence officer of the Russian armed forces, Sergei Skripal and his daughter. Why it is, it's hard to say.

According to BuzzFeed, only for the period from 2012 and up to the Fiddles in the UK, under mysterious circumstances, 14 Russians died who did not get along very well with their affectionate homeland. And this is only what we managed to find out for the journalists of BuzzFeed. So, that is not the first, and perhaps not the last - the Kremlin does not like changing its habits.

So why did it become the trigger of the escalation? Surely only Her Majesty can know about that, but, most likely, simply and pathetically burst patience, launching a chain reaction of a similar sentiment among the Allies. To tease a lion with impunity, of course, you can, and even for a long time - the main thing is to stop in time. Well, they never knew how to do that in Moscow.

The Kremlin would have to take advantage of the courtesy of Mrs. May for loosening up, and come to blame and say, "Yes, our" Novice ", but we did not poison the chess-tree, some of them were stolen, you know us, we have chemical weapons steal right and left. In Moscow, did not disappoint, and went into complete failure. So they received a massive expulsion of Russian diplomats, and after that new sanctions against the closest ones to Vladimir Vladimirovich's purse of oligarchs.

And at least already here to lie low. However, another sweet, but already heart of Putin, friend Bashar Assad once again struck chemical weapons on civil, brazenly unwilling to give control of the city of the Duma, that 10 km from the capital of Damascus. April 8, the US president launched his rabid Twitter and directly in the classical Kremlin style threatened "smart missiles" for the support of "animal" Assad. Expectedly, the Kremlin did not tolerate such a thing, and crumbled in response threats, overwhelming the UN Security Council resolution on Syria.

What weapons and where in Syria were the troops of the United States and its allies. Interactive map Somewhere at this moment the Third World began to seem closer than ever. The Kremlin media began to prepare Russians for a nuclear war, they say, we do not hint at anything, but it's worth taking water, rice, oatmeal, olive oil and less sweets in the bomb shelter. After Tramp's sudden tweet on April 10 with an appeal to stop the arms race, everyone relaxed a bit, and after the message the next day, on April 12,.

"I never said when there will be an attack on Syria. Maybe very soon or not so soon at all! In any case, the United States, under my administration, did a great job to rid the region of the "Islamic state". Where is our: "Thank you, America"? ", He wrote.

Without extra modesty Trump could safely say that by this tweet he had stumped if not all, then almost all. For which he received vicious hints of problems with mental health and discussions on the topic of the thickness of his gut. True, the Russians at the same time, just in case, after the report on smart missiles flew away from Tartous in a quick way, and some of the ground units were transferred to Iraq - and that's right, they do not have intelligent missiles, but suddenly Asad will still have to defend.

And it's not in vain. At about 4 am on April 14 (there is no time difference between Kiev and Damascus), the United States, together with France and the United Kingdom, showed who is thicker and fired 105 rockets at chemical facilities in Syria. Quietly flew over the "closed" Russian S-300 and S-400 sky. The third world, it seemed, was already waving in a welcoming manner with a nuclear pen. But hour by hour passed, and Russia, splashing saliva in all kinds of media and through all diplomatic channels, answered ... Mmm ... Nothing.

On Sunday, the US announced a new series of sanctions against Russia, which will be directed against companies that are in any way associated with equipment for Assad or the use of chemical weapons. And from the Kremlin there are still many words, and nothing more.

To explain such an incomprehensible peacefulness is simple - there is nothing to answer. Even if you really want to - and the Kremlin really wants to. In his arsenal of answers - only asymmetric. Counter-assaults are possible only on the principle of "bombing Voronezh". To ban cheeses, tomatoes, jamon and so on and so forth - it's please.

Adoption by foreigners is already prohibited, the "Yarovoi amendments" have already been adopted, the law on "foreign agents". The choice is not so great, but you can not doubt, even the brilliant variants of revenge for the insidious West will be found. The bill has already been submitted to the State Duma, which proposes to prohibit or restrict the import of raw materials and products from the United States and other countries, including medicines, cigarettes, alcohol, food, software and IT equipment.

It's them in the rotten West who study children, grow grandchildren, groomed villas, stacked money and running a business. But not the other way around. Well, they close the offices of major international companies or banks in Russia - so it will do them more harm. If only the Russians - then the most time, but the Kremlin's inconvenience to anything. Also what as a result remains? Show "Kuzkina mother" - use nuclear weapons. But Putin will not do it.

And that's why.

First, nuclear weapons exist primarily in order to use it in the offices, rather than in cities. It is an excellent fuse against those who want to snatch a piece of another from the state, as well as a universal and very effective method for blackmail and threats, which is proved and tested in practice by the same North Korea.

Secondly, it is elementary weak. For many years, Putin's behavior has been compared to the behavior of Gopnik. And he has never gone beyond this psychotype. And the logic of his behavior is simple enough. Gopnik strong and bold, when you need to tear off the first-ear and take money for lunch. When it is necessary in the gateway to get tired after the change of the frail peasant to catch and purse the wallet. Here he is the king and god. But it is necessary to him to come across a strong, clever and courageous opponent - here only heels and have shone.

Spit on Putin and on people who may die or become victims of radiation, at the expense of the time and money they need to make the earth burnt out by the nuclear explosion again suitable for life. He only fears that they will give. That the answer will be, so to speak, symmetrical. Moreover, again, the children-grandchildren-yachts-villas-money-everything is there, in the West. So he will "bomb Voronezh", so that the Russians suddenly did not suspect that something was wrong - as if all 18 years their lives were not controlled by the tsar. A weakling.

Why the West will not be the first to strike, it is obvious - unlike the Kremlin sittels, there time after World War II was actively used for evolution. They do not want Hiroshima and Nagasaki even to the enemy, and it's true. In addition, there came the understanding of the "common home" that the ties are too much and they are strong. The economic crisis will swing wings in one country - will cover the whole world.

Because of their troubled Western concerns, Western leaders have been accused of cowardice, and rightly so. There really do not want war, especially the world. But already realized that the policy of appeasement does not work. Some experts say that the Third World War has been going on for four years already - that the world order was destroyed by the annexation of the Crimea. Some that this Cold War version 2. 0 or even that the Cold War was the third world, and any of the following - the Fourth. Someone that this is a new type of war, a hybrid.

Most likely, they are all right and wrong at the same time. The evaluation is greatly complicated by the fact that, firstly, we are observing everything in real time. Secondly, humanity now seems to be looking at everything through a microscope, and is lost in conjecture, what is before it - we are too involved.

However, if we move slightly, everything looks as if the world war is really already going on. We just did not recognize her in the makeup of modern technology. And also because this war is really the other. She is simultaneously a sister of the First and Second World, Cold (she is also a hybrid) and at the same time - not even a fourth-born niece.

The degree of war at the diplomatic level is rising or falling, but within the framework of the "cold" history books it fits perfectly. If you rewind, you can easily find that even beginning with the war in Georgia, Moscow uses the same "hybrid" methods as during the Cold War: lying, manipulating facts and substituting concepts, stealing technology, killing "traitors," leaving "in refusal", if caught on a hot, "rescue" of "brotherly" peoples, without unrecognizable signs. In general, the hybrid war is the same, only with the amendment to the Internet and TV. We simply did not recognize her.

In this case, we are unlikely to observe large-scale ground operations, most likely, they will be conducted only in the format of proxy war - a mediated war between powerful states in the territory of third countries. In fact, Russia's war against Ukraine is also hers. On our territory the Kremlin is at war with the West. In Syria, the Kremlin and Assad are also fighting against the West, and IGIL is with the whole of civilization; in the territory of Yemen, the Arab states, headed by Saudi Arabia, are struggling with other Arab states led by Iran and so on.

The cardinal difference between the current world and the previous ones lies in the fact that the economic methods of pressure become key - the dependence of all from all. In the case of Russia, they also managed to give all the most valuable things to their own "enemies", and now they are being beaten not only by their citizens, to whom they do not care, but also by their loved ones. And another thing - after the Second World War there was a real chance of mutual nuclear strikes, now its probability strongly tends to zero, which was the reason for more active use of other instruments.

So there are two news - good and bad. Good - The third world such as we imagined it (with fights across the territory of different countries, fronts, destroyed cities, field camps and other things) is postponed and probably forever. Bad - everything looks as if it is already going. And we have no idea how this war will develop and what will lead to. Welcome to the hybrid future.

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