Almost a week of politics, experts and journalists have been wondering whether Donald Trump will carry out his threat not to leave a chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus. Some doubted, others traditionally accused the American president of recklessness and lack of understanding of the delicate nature of world politics, while others predicted the end of the world in the flames of nuclear war. On the night of April 14, everything became clear. The United States, Great Britain and France jointly destroyed several warehouses of chemical weapons and production centers belonging to the regime of Bashar Assad. The end of the world is postponed, - writes Yuri Fedorov in the column on "Radio Liberty".

Frankly speaking, Washington, London and Paris did not plan to defeat the Syrian regime. The task was more modest - to let Assad and his generals understand that the use of chemical weapons will not go unpunished. Both on the eve of, and after the strike, all this was widely discussed by politicians and political scientists. But the fact that on the night of April 14, a painful political and moral blow was inflicted not only on Damascus, but also on the Kremlin, in the world, and even more so in Russia they say much less.

Getting involved in the civil war in Syria, Putin expected to "exchange Syria for Ukraine," perhaps even to resign Assad in response to the West's recognition of the results of Russian aggression in Ukraine and to turn the Kremlin into a center of power equal in influence to the White House. This geopolitical idea, as might be expected, failed. Then in Moscow they headed for the unconditional support of the Syrian leader to establish himself as the main player in the Middle East. Until recently, it seemed that the Kremlin was successful in this. Russian carpet bombing played a role in the serious weakening of the Syrian opposition.

Putin saw himself as an influential world leader, which naturally flattered his vanity. But on the night of April 13 to April 14, the Russian president's ego suffered a blow: the friendly regime that Moscow pledged to defend and support, was subjected to quite expected and very morbidly politically punished. "Influential Middle Eastern player" from Putin did not work. Elites in the Middle East do not believe in words, but in deeds. And if the promised patronage fails, then the character who promised him loses credibility.

Everything again went wrong. Brave Russian military were in fact worried, first of all, that US missiles inadvertently did not catch the newly acquired bases in Tartous and Khmeimim. Then, according to the rules of the game, we would have to engage in combat with American troops, and this prospect was not aroused by any enthusiasm among Russian generals. It is one thing to bomb the civilian population or armed groups with impunity, who have neither aviation nor air defense assets, and quite another to fight with obviously superior forces of the United States.

Moreover, a sporadic clash with American, British and French forces could develop into a larger military conflict. Therefore, it is possible that the Russian generals themselves informed their American colleagues exactly where the trajectories of their cruise missiles must lie, so as not to fly into the zone of responsibility of Russian air defense.

After the threat of a collision with the US passed, Putin "most seriously" condemned the actions of Washington and ordered the convening of the UN Security Council. "History," he said, "will put everything in its place". The Council was convened. Mister Nebenzia, imitating an unkind memory to Andrei Vyshinsky, uttered another furious speech. Representatives of the United States, Britain and France have once again reminded that it is thanks to Russia's systematic application of the veto power that the Security Council can not stop the war in Syria.

With Putin you can agree on one thing: history really puts everything in its place. Future historians will be curious to analyze how and why, thanks to Putin, Russia was in a strategic trap. Russian troops in Syria are hostages of Damascus and Tehran. Both capitals are well aware that, to reduce Moscow's military presence in Syria, the Assad regime will again be on the verge of a fall, while the Iranian guards of the Islamic revolution and the Hezbollah gangs will remain without air cover and support.

Assad and his Iranian patrons learned to manipulate Putin, playing on his phobias and ambitions. In this light, it does not seem absurd to assume that the chemical attack in the Duma was started, including in order to bind Moscow even more to Damascus. It is clear that Putin can not leave Syria after the American bombardment, it would be a catastrophic loss of face. But the longer Russia remains in Syria, the greater the likelihood of a direct clash with the Americans, and potentially with NATO.

Of course, they may object to me: Russia received two bases, a naval base in Tartus and a military air terminal in Khmeimim. Already this, in the opinion of Russian "hawks", justifies the Syrian adventure. However, in the case of a "big war", these bases will be destroyed or capitulated in a few hours. Their survival depends 100% on extremely vulnerable communications with Russia. Even if Turkey (a member of NATO), for example, allows Russian ships to pass through the Black Sea straits, the American fleet will block their access to the Syrian coasts. Ratio of naval forces in the Mediterranean Sea is not in Russia's favor. And they could not stop the last bombardment of the Syrian chemical centers.

And, perhaps, the most important result of Saturday's night volley: the United States and its allies once again placed Moscow in that place in international affairs, which it deserves. And this place is not honorable. Putin's habitual tactic - "you first prove that it's us, and then we'll talk with you" - no longer works. Russian diplomats can demand evidence for as long as they want and invent inconceivable methods of poisoning the family of the Violins and using chemical weapons against the Syrian population. They simply do not enter into discussions, but in an insultingly polite form they send them to known addresses. This is natural and, in general, expected. And here, too, economic sanctions announced by the United States, by the stroke of a pen, weakened one of the largest Russian corporations, brought down the financial market and collapsed the ruble. It seems that the fate of the Russian economy is decided in essence not in Moscow, but in Washington.

So on the eve of the inauguration Putin has something to think about: he still has a chance to avoid the worst scenario. Donald Trump does not accidentally repeat over and over again that he would like to "get along" with Russia. True, "getting along" does not mean accepting the terms of the game offered by Putin. On the contrary, the American president, I think, has in mind the following: Russia must behave in accordance with its real, not imaginary, economic and military potencies.

Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty Join also the TSN group. Blogs on facebook and follow the updates of the section!.