Portnikov: What kind of somersaults will Trump produce now?

15 March 2018, 14:27 | Policy
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The resignation of Secretary of State of the United States Rex Tillerson can hardly be considered a real political sensation. About this resignation they spoke for several months in a row - after the personal incompatibility between the president and the state secretary became obvious, and Tillerson allowed himself to be very impartial and frank about the intellectual abilities of the former business colleague. The question was exclusively when Donald Trump decided to change the head of the State Department and who would be Tillerson's successor - the second personnel error in such a serious position for such a short period of time can not even afford Trump, writes journalist Vitaly Portnikov on the LIGA portal.

Of course, it is tempting to take the story with Tillerson to the account of Trump's apparent political inexperience. Already had to write that never engaged in politics or political management, Trump so far - a primary school student in the school, whose director he so anxious to become. That is why his presidency can only be a set of miscalculations, errors and false expectations. Trump as a president can take place only in case of re-election for a second term - but for this success the self-confident developer has yet to compete.

However, in the history of Tillerson, Trump's amateurism has absolutely no significance. Trump made the mistake that many presidents had made before him with much more political experience. This error is connected with two things - the desire to expand the base of its support at the expense of the head of the foreign policy department, seemingly risking nothing and the initial misunderstanding by the presidents of the essence of the tasks of the Secretary of State and the weight of his department.

Because the US Secretary of State is not a classical foreign minister, but one of the key figures in the government of the country. And because of the functions of its department and the influence that the United States has on the world. And when the understanding of the weight of this post comes, the president - especially a person with strong voluntaristic tendencies - certainly wants to have a much more manageable figure at the head of the State Department.

Ronald Reagan, one of Trump's idols, a great politician and a sophisticated manager, suffered for just one and a half year as Secretary of State for the veteran of American politics, General Alexander Haig, a period quite comparable to the Tillerson. Reagan needed to expand his own support base in the republican establishment. But when it became clear that Haig was becoming an alternative figure to the president, Reagan replaced him with a much more cautious and accommodating George Shultz, who worked in the State Department until the end of the second term of the president. And there are plenty of such examples in American political history.

Choosing Tillerson, Trump wanted, above all, to show his capabilities to the business community, his own environment, which is so important to him. But it turned out to be a bad decision - no self-respecting big businessman - and Tillerson, no doubt a big businessman - will not tolerate the extravagance and unpredictability of the first person. Trump needs someone who will simply bring the base to his aspirations - and in this sense, Mike Pompeo is a much more correct candidate. And those who argue that now the US foreign policy will become more presidential is absolutely right.

It will become much more presidential - as it became more presidential after Reagan got rid of Haig or after Obama survived the first term of political agreements with the ambitious Hillary Clinton and replaced it with the muffled John Kerry.

With only one significant difference - what kind of presidential foreign policy will this be, first of all, Donald Trump himself. Tillerson's dismissal will not only untie Trump's hands and allow the president to conduct some kind of straight rigid line, which many of his supporters and admirers are hoping for, will free Trump's legs for the dizzying unpredictable somersaults, whose witnesses we all have to become.




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