Russian reality turns the usual. Weakness, compensated by unpredictability, creates the illusion of strength. Stability is maintained by blurring the principles and lack of alternatives. Aggressiveness hides uncertainty. Let's take a look at what we are holding today, and we will think how long the country will be able to hobble, turning the vulnerability and the futility of the course into its national specifics, writes Lilia Shevtsova in the column on "Radio Liberty".

?1. Legitimacy of power. In the traditionally aligned layers of society, the legitimacy of power is destroyed by its efforts to desascrate itself, and among the "modernist" part of Russians - their disbelief in the possibility of its change.

The new Putin presidency and his agenda. The Kremlin did not come up with an idea that could unify the country. "Dictatorship of the law" - discredited by lawlessness. "The besieged fortress" - deprives the resources of the West. "Zachistka" - will have to build protection against "stripped". "Bureaucratization instead of favoritism" - means conservation of rot.

Loyalty as a principle of the existence of the ruling class. Works as long as the leader guarantees well-being. Once he ceases to play this role - the ruling class begins to search for a new object of loyalty.

Siloviki. A special class that arose as a result of the merger of a repressive mechanism with property. Possession of property deprives them of their desire to protect the state. It is also unclear to what extent they are ready to defend the leader.

Corruption. Vertical, built on corruption, can not fight it without the risk of self-destruction.

Revolution. Consequence of the refusal of the ruling class from the urgent reforms.

Decay. The result of a conscious policy of power that fears revolution. Both threaten the integrity of the country.

Liberalism. The ideology of the minority, discredited both by pro-Kremlin liberals and by Western cooperation with kleptocracy.

"Project Sobchak". The way to finally deprive the liberal minority of mass support. However, it would be impossible without the readiness of the minority to become the object of manipulation.

10. Intellectuals. The stratum that humanizes the autocracy, bringing public discontent "into the whistle".

eleven. Civic Initiatives. Strengthen stability by trying to solve problems, from the decision of which the state refused.

12. "Bulk Factor". A test of society's ability to protest and the willingness of the authorities to bleed.

13. West. Opponent and donor at the same time. It facilitates the survival of the autocracy, creating the image of an "enemy" for the needs of mobilization around power, while providing it with resources.

14. War. The way of survival of the Russian system. The integration of the ruling class into the West compels him to turn to blackmail with the war in order to increase his dividends from dialogue with him.

15. Enemies. Search for "enemy" - mechanism of self-assertion of leader and nation. Evidence of political neurosis. And while it is unclear whether he will be cured.

16. Sanctions. An attempt by the West to force the subject of sanctions to behave decently. But how much do these expectations are justified with regard to the hostile system for the West?.

17th. "The Trump Paradox". The most pro-Kremlin president of the United States under the threat of impeachment is forced to pursue the most anti-Kremlin policy.

18. "The Kremlin list". A formal list of the Russian elite, compiled by the White House, which tried not to aggravate relations with Moscow. Henceforth, the entire Russian ruling class becomes non-armored (including the pro-Western part of the elite), which destroys the mechanism of its existence in the dollar space.

19. Dislike. The feeling that the world around feels to Russia. The result of the Russian illusion that the world is hungry for our embraces and teachings, how to live it.

20. Putin in the Kremlin after March 2018. A hostage who knows that he can not get out of the Kremlin's labyrinth. The society also knows this, but does not know what to do with it.

21. Fear of chaos of powerlessness. The most solid "clasp" of autocracy, which neutralizes destructive tendencies. And here is the existential question: will there come a time when, in the perception of society, the chaos generated by the authorities will outweigh the fear of anarchy? Perhaps the new Putin presidency will give us an answer. Not long to wait.

Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty Join also the TSN group. Blogs on facebook and follow the updates of the section!.