The Islamic Republic of Iran found itself in an economic and political impasse, an expert in Le Monde writes: the agreement on the INP did not improve the life of the Iranians, and the tough recommendations of the IMF contradict the revolutionary promises to give priority to the disadvantaged. The rallies also reflect the indignation of the supporters of the religious government: they believed that the essence of the regime should be Shiite Islam. The Times calls on the West to "take advantage of the chance to change Iran".

The protest wave that has developed in Iran can be explained by the fact that the Islamic Republic was in a double - economic and political - impasse, writes a researcher from the International Institute for Strategic Studies? (IISS) Clement Terme in the discussion section Le Monde.

The workers and partly the middle class are protesting against the deterioration of living conditions, but not only, the author points out.. "Teheran faced the most important challenge - to restore order and in the longer term - to ensure the survival of the 1978-1979 revolution. Rallies against the regime are due to both short-term and structural reasons. The first is the price increase (for example, eggs have risen in price by 40%), the announcement of the termination of monthly subsidies for the poorest and the ruin of banks, "- explains the expert.

Iranians are very disappointed that the agreement on the INP in 2015 failed to live up to expectations of a better life. In addition, they would prefer that funds from oil rents are not distributed to Iran's clients in the region (Hezbollah, Hamas, some Shiite militias in Iraq and especially Syria), but were spent inside their own country.

The structural causes of social protest, such as corruption and the inappropriate distribution of oil rent, the regime is not able to cure, writes Term. There is a caste of privileged who use the rent and do nothing to organize its redistribution among outsiders. Hence the feeling of great injustice.

"To manage discontent, the founder of the Islamic Republic has established an intricate political system that can be classified as an authoritarian electoral regime," the expert notes.. - In Iran, this does not work because of the existence of Persian liberalism (. ) and the economic failure of the Islamic Republic. The neoliberal austerity policy, consistent with the recommendations of the IMF, is at odds with the revolutionary promises to give priority to the disadvantaged (bridgeasafin) ".

What can the centrist president Ruhani do? He is forced to call America a scapegoat to justify the failure of the economic policy of the system, which has always despised such questions, reads the article. Ayatollah Khomeini once said that "the economy is the inheritance of donkeys".

Then it was about the priority of spiritual issues, the author explains.. "Nevertheless, today the issues of political economy are posed by Iran in the face of the contradictions between the figure of the mullah-businessman and the capitalist and the ambitions of the Islamic Republic. Part of the destitute takes to the streets to oppose the seizure of the country's wealth by a new politico-religious elite. This is expressed by the sharp disapproval of the supporters of the religious government, who believed that Shiite Islam should be the essence of any legitimate government in Iran, "concludes Term.

The journalist of the German edition of Die Welt, Francesca Coferri, spoke with Shirin Ebadi, an Iranian human rights activist who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2003.

Ebadi believes that the protests of 2009 were exclusively related to politics, but today's actions "can really become the beginning of something very big" and they will not stop even if the immediate economic issues that led to the protests.

"Iran is in a severe economic crisis. The scale of corruption throughout the country is horrifying, "- said Ebadi.

In addition, Iran has an extremely high level of military spending: people can no longer see what money is spent on the army, said the human rights activist.

"Young people are most disappointed," Ebadi noted.. "There are other reasons for her bitterness: extremely high unemployment".

"The social gap between the rich and the poor has increased in recent years, and this is a key element in understanding what is happening here," stressed Ebadi.

"Can the tough stance of the US president in relation to the Iranian government lead to the fact that people will again support the regime?" - asked the journalist.

The human rights defender replied: "Today's protests show that people are distancing themselves from the government and do not intend to support it without criticism. And this despite Trump ".

Speaking about the role of Europe, Ebadi advised: "Before concluding any trade agreements, Europe needs to think about human rights in Iran".

When almost ten years ago Iranian students, who were opposed to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, took to the streets, he called them "dust and dirt" and sent security services to smash their heads and arrest their leaders. Now, his supposedly liberal successor Hasan Ruhani has faced a more difficult task, says The Times columnist Roger Boyes.

"The West was wrong in 2015, counting on the longevity of Rukhani and his plan for modernizing Iran," the author writes. "This calculation - let's call him Obama's bet - was that curbing the Iranian nuclear program would make the region safer, allow sanctions to be removed from Tehran and sponsor Ruhani's liberalization, which would make the future use of the nuclear weapons regime unthinkable". Instead, the funds went to support the Assad regime, Hezbollah and the policy of military adventurism.

The author points to such problems of Iran as the growth of unemployment, the reduction of state subsidies for fuel and food products and the introduction of a tax on those who travel abroad. This gave each social stratum the cause for discontent.

"This explosive situation reminds me of Poland in 1980, when the Solidarity movement, based on workers' dissatisfaction, united around itself various social groups," recalls Boys. This became a harbinger of the death of communism as the ruling ideology - and it fell eight years later.

"Ruhani and, perhaps, the entire theocratic system has even less time," the journalist believes..

"Europeans should rethink their policy towards Iran," the author urges. - So far, Tehran has confronted the European countries that signed the nuclear deal, with Trump.

Now we need to talk with the Trump team and agree on common goals: does it meet the common interests of the West to turn Iran into a military leader of the region? (. ) How will we get to the rank-and-file Iranians and convince them that the subversive activities of their government abroad are detrimental to their status in the world? ".

"There is a clear choice between guns and oil before the Iranians. We must push them to the right future, "concludes Boys.

Source: InoPressa.