Putin is a "peacemaker". Experts explained the changes in the policy of the Kremlin in the Donbass

19 December 2017, 11:02 | Policy
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Russia's decision to withdraw from Ukraine all its military, representatives of the Russian Federation in the SCCC, is part of the hybrid war that Russian President Vladimir Putin is carrying out.

Such an opinion in the TSN commentary. ua expressed political and military experts.

The Russian military must leave Ukraine on Tuesday, December 19.

Such intentions were voiced by the Russian Defense Ministry to the OSCE observers last week, but only now this decision was confirmed in the Russian Foreign Ministry.

SSCC is the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire and Stabilization of the Contact Line in the Donbass. It was established in 2014. As part of the SCCC, there were both Ukrainian and Russian military officers - 75 officers, changed every three months.

The current statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry says that the further work of representatives of the Russian Armed Forces has become "impossible" because of the "position of the Ukrainian authorities".

In addition, Russian diplomats complained that the Ukrainian military treated their Russian counterparts badly and created a "tense mental and psychological situation".

Experts insist that Russia took such a step not at all because of concern for the psychological state of its military, but only for additional pressure on Ukraine during the talks, in particular, the UN peacekeeping mission, which is now being discussed at the highest levels.

Thus, Ukraine requests the deployment of UN peacekeepers throughout the occupied territory of the Donbass, in particular, and on the border with Russia. At the same time, the main condition for the Ukrainian side is the absence in the mission of the Russian military. Russia, in turn, is trying to press its version of the mission with conditions unacceptable for Ukraine in terms of its location and composition.

This opinion was also expressed in the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, besides, calling Russia's decision another provocation that significantly undermines the Minsk agreements, and "the desire to remove any responsibility as parties to the conflict for the consequences of armed aggression against our state".

Eugene Magda, Director of the Center for Public Relations:.

- First, such a step can be regarded as an approximation of escalation. Because the feedback of those people who somehow performed the function of intermediaries is not too good news.

Secondly, this is the political position of Russia associated with the prospect of the appearance of the UN blue helmets in the Donbass. Russia understands that they will not get along with SCCC in any way, and thus demonstrates that it does not want to see UN peacekeepers in the Donbass.

Thirdly, it is a demonstration that for Russia this Joint Control and Coordination Center has already fulfilled its function and has outlived itself. And I think that in this way Russia is trying to blackmail the Ukrainian leadership with a new aggravation of the conflict and carry out various provocations.

At the same time, in the Russian media environment, they try to show that Ukraine is to blame for everything, and they sort of created "inhuman conditions of existence".

This is also an obvious element of the hybrid war. But in this case it is embodied with a special cynicism.

Nikolai Malomuzh, general, former chairman of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine:.

- This decision was announced right after Putin's statement at a press conference that the Minsk format is ineffective.

In contrast, Putin will put forward other initiatives. In particular, he said that their proposal to the UN on the peacekeeping contingent of the new format will be more effective in the territory controlled by militants.

And, accordingly, he will raise the issue of creating this mission necessarily with the participation of Russia. A condition will also be put forward that there should be control not on the border with Russia, but only on the line of demarcation and in some directions where weapons are used. There will also be a third component - a direct negotiation process with the militants.

And here, with the goal of pressure on the Ukrainian side, possible aggravation of the situation on the line of demarcation. We already have cases of heavy weapons, in particular mortar rockets, tanks. There are also real losses among our military. That is, the more serious consequences already become reality.

Therefore, this decision by Russia to withdraw its military is both a political and a step in the security sphere, so that their military will not suffer during the escalation of hostilities.

Ukraine needs to use our negotiating groups more powerfully not only within the framework of the Norman format, but, in particular, to attract the US. They are ready to help the State Department, and the administration itself can quite actively participate in this process. Moreover, the US military has already stated that they are ready to provide weapons.

Putin said that he did not mind that the US became a party to the negotiation process. Therefore, it must be organized, more clearly defined priorities. And this will be a more powerful support for our side. We will have then or equivalent forces, or even more than in Russia.

Sergei Postolovsky, political consultant:.

- We see Russia following its peacekeeper tactics. One of these days Putin during a press conference said that he is not against a peacekeeping mission throughout the Donbass region, but this should be negotiated with the representatives of terrorists.

These are all steps of one circuit. And this is done in order to make some decision about the introduction of a peacekeeping mission to the Donbass. But I think that this decision will be agreed between Russia and the United States without the participation of Ukraine. And it will take into account those positions on which Russia has been insisting for four consecutive years, namely: a special status for certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and holding local elections.

And this step towards the withdrawal of the Russian contingent from the SCCC is carried out only in order to quickly introduce peacekeepers, which in turn gives a kind of carte blanche for Russia in terms of partial easing of sanctions and further establishing relations with the United States not only in the context of Ukraine, but also in the context of the Middle East, China, North Korea.



It should also be taken into account that this strategy of Putin envisages the consolidation of certain influence on Ukraine and its policy. The establishment of peace is possible next year, but at what price - because of the loss of political or territorial sovereignty that will occur in case of holding local elections and granting Donbass special status. After all, we understand that in this case Russia will make key decisions on such territories, and not Kiev.




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