Vitaly Portnikov: Three signals from Vladimir Putin

14 December 2017, 17:52 | Policy
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At first glance, the final press conference of Vladimir Putin did not introduce any new emphasis on the Ukrainian policy of the Russian ruler. Putin was also accustomed to talking about "one people", blaming "possible Kiev sins" on all possible sins, warning of the danger of "massacres" in the territory of Donbass in case the regions occupied by Russia are returned under the control of Ukraine.

All this would be so if we did not take into account the very political style of Putin, his desire to talk with signals. And the fact that for the direction of such signals he chose his daily show, which is not clear why they call a press conference, there is also a kind of signal. It consists in the fact that Putin begins to prepare public opinion of Russia for his new turn. Because if the Russian president wanted to send a signal to the West or to Kiev, he would have chosen a different format.

The first, most important signal of Putin at this press conference is his agreement with full international control over the territory of Donbass. Yes, this consent is conditioned by the customary requirement to implement the Minsk Agreements and give the occupied territory a special status. Yes, at the same time it is said about the absence of Russian troops in the Donbas - the usual "ihtemnet". But the very fact of the possibility of control, including at the border, shows how the Kremlin can choose the settlement option in the coming year. This is not an absorption option. This is an option for avoiding the restoration of Ukrainian control, the replacement of the occupiers by UN peacekeepers. And this is what Putin will try to achieve in his contacts with the Americans.

By the way, about Americans. The second signal sent by Vladimir Putin is the recognition of the American role in the Ukrainian settlement. A full-fledged role, as the Russian ruler himself said. Putin claims that he never protested against such participation, but we well remember that this is not so. The Norman format itself was formed precisely because the Kremlin desperately resisted American involvement in resolving the crisis. Putin's words indicate that he intends to agree on the Donbass - and it is with the Americans, and not with Europeans or us. The Norman format was a political lever for Putin to influence the situation. Consultations with Americans are the way to obtain guarantees, including personal. At least it becomes clear which way Putin is going to go.

The third important signal sent by Putin relates to the de facto recognition of Ukraine's right to independence and independent choice. Yes, this signal was turned into familiar slogans about "one people". And it was not difficult to notice that the audience applauded precisely these words of the ruler. This also can not be ignored: chauvinism is not a personal illness of Putin. Chauvinism, as a cancerous tumor, affects the Russian national and Russian state organism. Nevertheless, Putin-chauvinist has to give way to Putin-politics. Putin spoke about Ukrainian features, the "western borders of Russia" and the right of his choice with apparent disgust, it was clear that this walking dead himself thinks otherwise. But - he said! And this will also be part of his political program after the elections. Another question is what Putin wants to see an independent Ukraine, what does his choice. After all, Ukraine Medvedchuk or Boyko for Putin - also Ukraine, as Ukraine was the country of Yanukovych and Azarov. But here much depends on us, not on him.

Thus, at the final press conference of Putin we saw a kind of sketch of his possible political turn in the Ukrainian question. Yes, much will depend on the conditions on which Putin will agree with the West, more precisely - with Washington.

We can not exclude deviations from the chosen course and attempts to escalate tensions in order to make opponents more compliant and demonstrate the weakness of the Ukrainian state.

Of course, an important part of the new Putin approach is the destabilization of Ukraine with the help of internal agents and provocations. Putin did not say this, of course,.

And, nevertheless, we can say that the decision on how to act on the Ukrainian direction, Putin has accepted - and is ready to implement it.

Original.




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