No matter how friendly the personal feelings of President Donald Trump in relation to Moscow, the anti-Russian policy of his administration is even more decisive than it was under the presidency of Barack Obama. This conclusion was formulated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov, who expressed concern about the "Russophobic hysteria" that engulfed Washington. This opinion Lavrov shared with Michael Flynn, a former national security adviser in the Trump administration, who pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russian officials. Now it is expected that as a result of this investigation it will be possible to get much more evidence about the facts of Moscow's interference in the presidential elections in the States. Therefore, the next step of the US will be the implementation of the law on sanctions against the Russian Federation.

Now, to keep the Russian economy from further decline is possible only if Moscow agrees with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the reduction of oil production, which will stop the decline in oil prices. But Russian business elites have serious concerns about personal sanctions against oligarchs, closely related to the Kremlin. The huge fortunes in the western tax havens are now in danger. In the risk zone were even members of the family of Russian oligarchs enjoying life in Monaco or Miami.

The official rhetoric of the Kremlin has already referred to a kind of "big war" (the tone was asked by President Vladimir Putin, who held a series of meetings, and then demanded from big business readiness for a rapid expansion of defense production). But in reality, a return to a militaristic economy of the Soviet model is impossible. The recent failed launch of the spacecraft from the new Vostochny cosmodrome once again reminded of the degradation of the entire Russian military-industrial complex.

Therefore, the most likely epicenter of an emergency situation remains a hybrid conflict in the Donbass. Moscow has made a lot of efforts to ensure that in the West there is fatigue from the impasse in the Minsk process. However, US Special Representative Kurt Volcker's statement about the need to restore Ukrainian control over all the occupied territories was an unkind reminder to Moscow that Washington remembered well the dirty "small war" of Russia. And the armed quarrels in the Lugansk quasi-republic testify to the inability of Moscow to provide in its separatist enclaves at least something remotely resembling an order.

In the Middle East, Russia is trying to combine assets that can be used for negotiations with the US. And thus trying to prevent the introduction of really tough sanctions. However, Russia has not yet implemented ambitions in Syria aimed at supporting the regime of Bashar Assad. Even after Putin's announcement of victory, Israel is conducting its own air raids on Hezbollah base near Damascus, not taking into account the deal about "de-escalation zones".

Russian experts are well aware that Pyongyang's "defensive purposes" may be masked by the aggressive plans of the DPRK, which in turn poses a direct threat to Vladivostok. In Russia they do not know how to interpret Trump's statement: "We will cope with this". Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev believes that the military solution to the North Korean crisis is unacceptable. Moscow is not ready to accept the nuclear status of its totalitarian neighbor, and is quite upset by the expanding cooperation of the United States and China. In this case, Russia remains on the sidelines in this big East Asian game.

Putin, it seems, can not fully understand all the nuances of the policy of Beijing and can not fully understand the complexity of Middle Eastern intrigues. He was convinced that the main driving factor of politics remains corruption. He thought that during last year's presidential campaign in the US, he finally managed to build ties with American political corruption.

But as a result, such a move caused only a huge damage to Russia's international status. Putin does not admit his mistakes. But he can not save his lackeys from punishment in the form of sanctions, compensate them for their growing losses. Relations between the Russian Federation and the United States deteriorate, and Putin is not in a position either to control the situation or to resist this.

Pavel Baev Political scientist, Professor of the Institute for Peace Studies (Oslo) Translation of HB.