In the Internet, the news was rapidly spreading the news of a military coup in Zimbabwe, but events did not begin to recruit a classic bloody scenario for the coup.
So, on the air of the state television and radio channel ZBC, one of the henchmen of the Chivenga, General Sibusiso Moyo, stated: "Our goal is only criminals around the President of Zimbabwe who commit crimes and cause social and economic problems in the country, we want to achieve justice for them".
On the following day, the top leadership of the ZANU-PF (Zimbabwean African National Union-Patriotic Front) party published its response to Mugabe on its official page: "Your Excellency and First Secretary ZANU-PF, sad and lamentable, that you allowed us to seize our party beginners and external forces, and also to people with the established reputation of traitors. This party is not personal property for you and your wife to do with it as you please ".
It is noteworthy that this is the first military intervention in the history of Zimbabwe in the political life of the country, and it was very successful, as it also led other black leaders, neighboring Zimbabwe, to talk about the seriousness of the intentions of the militarists.
From these two notices it is obvious that the text of both does not put before the president any specific demands or dictates, and their content is of an advisory nature, or at least so the putsch leaders want to show it to the public.
Causes of the conflict and Grace Mugabe On the eve of these events, Robert Mugabe dismissed his vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa, who also directs the Ministry of Justice. Personality in Zimbabwe's political clique is very remarkable, since it was he who was considered the main contender for the post of head of state at the expiration of the cadence of Robert Mugabe or his death. He is supported by the "old guard" of the ruling party, Robert Mugabe, who consists of the military, politicians and partisans who participated in the war against Rhodesia and its "white" government. Mnangagwa himself also took an active part in this conflict. The vice-president himself was forced to leave Harare and travel from South Africa. This was the reason for the discontent of the military from the number of veterans who support their ally, as in other things and Robert Mugabe.
However, the essence of the conflict lies in the fact that Robert Mugabe is by far the oldest ruler in the world, and his presidential chair must be occupied by someone after his departure. Already for several years inside the party, two factions confront each other, with one ethnicity. This will be crucial for understanding the specific case of the power struggle in Zimbabwe, this will be discussed below.
One group is headed by the wife of current President Grace Mugabe - Grace Mugabe, who heads the "youth" and "women's" wing of the party. It was her party mastodons who predicted the future place of the head of Zimbabwe, which they actually do not need, as they seek to continue the heredity of transferring power to one of the former comrades-in-arms and "fellow countrymen" Robert Mugabe. They were to become Mnangagwa, behind which are the party elders and military, who control the "power business" in the country.
Let's note, that wife Grace Mugabe very successfully realizes the plans skilfully conducting backstage negotiations, and also spreading false rumors. For example, at one of the rallies she openly stated that Mnangagvagotovil coup d'etat against Robert Mugabe. It is interesting that against the majority of those disliked by her close associates and politicians, she skillfully uses the factor of her elderly spouse, which situationally lends itself to the political whims of her wife.
It's interesting that Madame Grace Mugabe herself is not popular with the people because her life is characterized by exorbitant luxury - she lives in a poor country in a palace built for $ 26 million, goes to expensive shopping tours in European capitals, where she spends tens of thousands of euros for clothes from expensive western brands.
At the same time, with all its authority remains high, of course, while her husband lives. Attacks from critics, she replies: "Maybe I have a small fist. But when it comes to fighting, I can type stones into it to increase. I do not advise you to check my possibilities ".
The factor of tribalism Tribalism is a special form of interrelations among members of African tribes, something similar to the form of the Roman patronage-client system of connections. That's exactly this issue will pay due attention, as for Zimbabwe this is a separate case, when against Robert Mugabe not another ethnic group acted, and their own "countrymen".
For the African tribes, it is absolutely normal that when one of their fellow tribesmen ascends the social ladder, or rather becomes a significant political or military figure, then he must pull all his relatives along with him. As a result, the situation develops when the most important posts by the minister and officials are occupied by completely uneducated and incompetent people, but, as they say, "their own". Basically, this is the layer of the population, more precisely, the tribe, which is actively engaged in agitation and support of his patron. It is thanks to the ability of the African ruler to find a compromise among the many different ethnic groups that often represent a semblance of political parties and ensure the length of stay in power. It may seem that such collegiality in African countries should only strengthen parliamentary ethics and strengthen the republican system of the state, but in practice, as we wrote above, the so-called tribal opposition remains out of work, and then other methods are used to renew its credit of trust.
Undoubtedly, the almost 200-year-old historical era of colonialism in Africa played a role here, which auknuvalsya bloody civil wars and tribal conflicts, when Europeans began to leave the "black continent", giving up the torn African states led by national governments. It was too impetuous and unexpected for local people to push, which should not be perceived as a "gift of the white man's good will", but on the contrary responsibility that the leaders and minds of Europe did not want to take on themselves, although they were well aware of the consequences of such rapid changes, but under pressure from external circumstances, retreated.
Zimbabwe is characterized by a slightly transformed format of tribalistic relationships. Here, the ethnic conflict was temporarily frozen in the 1980s, when Robert Mugabe was able to unite several opposition forces under the format of the "National Liberation Front" in the name of the common goal of overthrowing the regime of "white oppressors". This format is manifested in several other African states, it temporarily softens ethnic strife to achieve common goals, but is again resumed on their implementation.
It is here that the conflict between Grace Mugabe and Emmerson Mnangagwa is interesting, because they both belong to the Shona ethnos, and therefore within the party there are purely clan disassemblies, whose goals are very clearly visible - who will take power after the death of Robert Mugabe. In this context, it becomes clear why the military is trying to persuade the president to voluntarily leave his post, since he has long been no longer a subject of discussion in political dialogues. Inside the party, the struggle for the inheritance of Robert Mugabe began without his participation. Indeed, the president lost some of his powers, such as the authority of the commander-in-chief of the troops, but the militarists did not issue any edicts, curfews were not introduced, but merely conducted several arrests of his entourages. Therefore, the question of organizing a coup is considered debatable.
Is Mugabe so bad?.
The period of Robert Mugabe's rule is the most vivid example of how uneducated, incompetent, illiterate people can once bring the "breadbasket" of all Africa and one of the highest countries of the continent to complete poverty, the degradation of the population, famine and the extinction of the population from diseases over a couple of decades. Mugabe's track record is replete with "reforms": he drove Europeans out of the country, GDP per capita is - 14 trillion zimbabian dollars, AIDS and gays are prohibited by law, for impersonating the ancestor spirit - the death penalty. apartment rent - only for Europeans who get to Zimbabwe, there is no electricity payment for the population, just like electricity itself, sale and consumption of alcohol are forbidden - but not in Zimbabwe, petrol is seen less often - 1 liter of gasoline per 14 liters of water.
The reaction of the population to the coup and the outlook for the future Zimbabweans with songs and dances met the news of Mugabe's displacement, some even talked about his death. Indeed, people are tired of the long years of despotism of their leader, but hunger, ethnic cleansing, total destruction and poverty have so driven ordinary people that they do not have the strength to fight with Robert Mugabe, their reaction is rather a silent protest to the death of the president in the hope of a change. And the catalyst for such changes was the military.
In general, do not underestimate Robert Mugabe, because he still has the support of the African Union, his neighbors, and he is still, so to speak, legitimate! No, the painful death of a dictator or an exile does not await him, unless he himself of course wishes to leave the country. Behind Robert Mugabe is a huge authority - the "father of the nation", the "founder of the country", namely, social status and name are of great importance in African culture. From a political point of view, one should expect that a coalition led by his wife will not.
Robert Mugabe himself may even remain in office until the next election of the summer of 2018, but his role in the government of the state will remain purely ceremonial, he will no longer be able to play the "omnipotent dictator". Executive power will be given to someone from Robert Mugabe's associates from the clique of veterans of the movement "National Front" - Mnangagwe or Tsvangirai. The economy of the country will clearly undergo changes, it will be open to investors who will buy up everything that is possible for nothing - this concerns China. Some sanctions will be lifted, the new government will go to the world with the US and the EU.