Russian political scientist: Putin has only two options

10 November 2017, 19:14 | Policy
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First, I also think that the meeting between Putin and Trump should take place, because several important problems have accumulated. This is Ukraine, North Korea and Syria. On the part of Russia, much effort was made to ensure that this meeting was held and that it is important that these efforts were undertaken by Mr. Ushakov. This is Putin's assistant for foreign affairs, who personally replaces all the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Foreign Ministry works as it were on the surface, and Mr. Ushakov, who is less public, but much more attentive, determines the real international policy. How does this not hurt for Mr. Lavrov, writes on the Observer Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin.

So, Mr. Ushakov was preparing this meeting. There were some ideas about what can be exchanged with Trump. And from the US side, such considerations followed, that in general, yes, we do not mind. But literally a day or two before this meeting it became known that it is being postponed. And already on the 9th from Washington they said that we do not have time, sorry, please. We, as it were, are not up to you.

This is such a finely designed slap in the face, there's nothing to say. This, of course, is diplomatic, Russian diplomats are not accustomed to. As Soviet in his time. The UN General Assembly laughed at one time over Gromyko, when he said that in Cuba there are no missiles.

But worse not even this. Worse is that now there is an obvious reconfiguration of world relations. The Anglo-Saxon system of priorities is interested in those who are equal and those with whom they are forced to relate. 50 years ago she was with some interest in the Soviet Union for two reasons. First, it is a source of constant threat with nuclear weapons. And secondly, how does he contrive with so many ineffectual ideologies and priorities to exist.

Militarily, it was a dangerous player. Now an absolutely similar situation between the US and China. They travel, agree, let everyone know that they are the two main players in the global world. And Trump says that this is t. Asian Pacific cooperation, to which Russia has invested so much, is irrelevant to it. Like Russia itself. This is Obama said that Russia is a regional power, which was perceived as a very painful insult. Putin has taken many steps to prove that this is not so. And Trump does not even talk about it, he just does not invite to the talks. He is not interested in talking to Putin because he represents a country where less than 2% of the world population and less than 2% of the world economy.

In general, this is a regional power. The only thing she has is a weapon, and that's the problem of Putin. He can only play on the sphere of weapons, strikingly reminiscent of Kim Jong Un. Just ten years ago he tried to play a raw empire, into a pipeline empire, and now we see that this North Stream blocked. And the main stream goes through Ukraine, which can not be bent in any way. So all this talk about the raw empire - they collapsed.

There remains only one thing - to frighten the atomic bomb, which too will soon die out as the development of anti-missile defense. Any American leader understands that the current Putin Russia is not the most interesting object for negotiations, which was demonstrated with all the visibility that is offensive to the Russian Federation. Because of this, Putin can expect an attempt to aggravate the situation somewhere else. He wants to force the developed world - to have a business with him. He can do this with gas or oil, or with an atomic bomb or some other weapon. Here he climbed into Syria and thought that they would agree with him. And I thought that with him will agree on the division of spheres of influence in this very Syria.

But the current Putin's Russia is much weaker than the key parameters, because military parameters in the current world cease to be key. They have long ceased to be key and that is why the Union lost. He put everything to the war, but it was necessary to bet on the economy. We had more tanks than anyone else in the world - 94 thousand pieces, and tanks and tanks were not enough - there was nothing.

Putin has an option, or to humble pride and turn Russia into a normal democratic, European developed country. And this implies that he must leave. Democratic elections are fair competition. Or even more to become a militaristic closed and threatening whole world, with which they are considered only because it can rumble an atomic bomb. There are more reasons to reckon with it - no.




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