Fictitious truce. Voenekspert explained how to resolve the conflict in Donbass

30 August 2017, 23:49 | Policy
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"School" truce in the Donbass on the occasion of the beginning of the academic year, announced from August 25, as there was no, and no. I do not know how anyone did, but personally I had no hopes that it would be implemented. At least because Putin did not abandon his goals. While there is no reason to say that something in his plans has changed. All these "truces" are just an attempt to create the appearance that the Minsk process is going on. After all, in this scenario, one can not blame Russia for failing to comply with international agreements, the director of the Razumkov Center's military programs Nikolai Sungurovsky writes on the NV portal.

I think that we need to move on to a more efficient format for a long time. For example, reformatting these negotiations under the Budapest Memorandum. So that the guarantors of these agreements were those countries that did not fulfill their promises on the Budapest Memorandum. I think it would be a more effective option.

Now they say that in autumn Ukraine will come out with an initiative to introduce a peacekeeping mission to the occupied Donbas. But while this prospect is unrealistic. If you enter the peacekeeping contingent, then you need to enter it under the auspices of the UN, and under the article not the 6th, but the 7th UN Charter. That is, "not the maintenance of peace," but "the establishment of peace". That is, in essence, there should be a military operation to end the conflict.

But this can be done only when Russia is recognized as one party to the conflict. Otherwise, Russia will always veto any decision on Ukraine. This is the whole problem - Russia is a member of the UN Security Council.

The introduction of any other peacekeeping contingent under the aegis, for example, the OSCE is a police mission - it will not solve its tasks. It is because Putin does not abandon his goals. And the fact that the OSCE police monitoring units will be present in the Donbass is only an observation of the conflict, and not its settlement.

I stress that in order to make a decision on the introduction of peacekeepers, Russia needs to recognize itself as a party to the conflict. If this happened, even a peacekeeping contingent would not have been necessary. Because Moscow itself would have been compelled, under the pressure of sanctions, to withdraw its troops from Donbass. In this case, yes, you may need some kind of observation contingent over the withdrawal process of these troops. But the most opposite is that Russia is brazenly lying and declares: "Prove our presence, we are good, and you try to prove that we are bad". This is how Churkin acted during the UN Security Council meetings.

However, there is a workaround for making a decision on a peacekeeping mission - through the UN General Assembly. There is a resolution of the General Assembly since 1950, which states that if the UN Security Council is not able to make a decision, then it can turn to the General Assembly. Moreover, it is not the "five" (such as the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council) that can apply for such a request, but any 7 members of the organization, and there are 15 of them.

And this is known for a long time, this was said about in 2014.

But then all the diplomats told us that it was very difficult to do. But it's difficult - it does not mean impossible. That is, it was necessary to work, to use that favorable moment when in support of Ukraine there were quite a lot of votes. If you remember, the first resolution on Ukraine was voted by 110 UN member states. In the second poll there were only 70 left. That is, we missed the moment. And now, to win 140 votes for Ukraine (the demand of the General Assembly) is an archetypal task. Such mistakes are inadmissible.




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