We shall not be formalists. The real countdown of the current government began eighteen years ago, on August 9, 1999, when Boris Yeltsin appointed Vladimir Putin and. Premier and announced his successor. Since then, Putin - the face of the Russian government, no matter how called his post, writes the observer of the portal Rosbalt Sergei Shelin.

The Russians who were born that very day celebrate their majority today and will be the first to be born under Putin, who in the spring at the polling stations will see his name in the presidential bulletin.

And the fact that it will be there, there is no doubt. Until pike fishing naive or just loving to attract attention, experts could still gossip that supposedly a surprise is possible. But the historical capture of Tuvan pike put in place all the fans guess where there is nothing to guess. In the spring of 2018, Vladimir Putin for the fourth time (and in fact the fifth - Medvedev does not count) will become the head of Russia.

Is it a sign of an incredible managerial skill or, say, luck?.

The luck factor should not be discarded. For example, if you turn out, for example, in the 1990s, the era of expensive oil, you would remember Yeltsin quite differently. If you turn to the old sources, the Roman ruler Sulla did not in vain order to add to his name the word "Felix" (happy, lucky). For the public it was a message that they were not talents at all, but only exceptional and unchanging luck brought the leader one victory after another. It was an excellent PR move. After all, everyone understands that the talent is not always successful, but with luck you can not argue. Destiny is fate.

Putin's fortune, you can say, went into the saying. But at different stages of government her role was not the same, and in recent years it has not been necessary to talk about him as a lucky ruler.

By the end of Boris Yeltsin's presidency, there were two consensuses in the country. One - public, another - not widely publicized. Firstly, almost all agreed that the new head of state should pull up the machine that had been loosened up, even taking some of the freedoms. Secondly - but this was only discussed in the offices - it should have happened somehow from the secret services. It was under these banners and with this baggage that all the then contenders competed - Primakov, Stepashin, Putin and one or two more.

The main heavyweight among them looked Primakov, the Prime Minister in 1998 - the 99th. He promised more openly than others the abolition of election of officials, widely organized plantings, strangulation of oligarchs of the then draft, the growth of state regulation and other things that were then useful.

However, eventually Putin became the second president of Russia, who promised the same thing in a more streamlined, flexible and modern manner. The victory of Putin, a man less known and promoted by such unpopular figures as Berezovsky, was the result not only of his personal skills, but also of luck. Fortune could smile at another, who would then do about the same thing.

Putin's second success was the rapid growth of the economy, which lasted until 2008, and started about six months before his premiership. People just did not immediately notice that things are getting better, and they attributed the success to the new leader. The real reason for the rise was the creation in the 1990s of some kind of a market economy, and the default of 98, which unleashed financial nodes. After that, it was necessary not to interfere.

At first, the economic team of early Putin not only did not interfere, but even managed to rationalize something. But by 2003, for the first roles in the near circle came other people - wishing to staff their own new oligarchy. Not that the country is ardently striving for this, but the leader again was fantastically lucky - at that time the oil went up steeply and remained incredibly expensive until the middle of 2014. It seemed that from now on petrodollars will be enough for everyone - both higher and lower.

Luck smiled and on external fronts. This has long been forgotten, but by the end of his reign Yeltsin quarreled literally with the whole world. Putin - at that time young, energetic and advanced - worked on contrast.

These were the times of Schroeder and Berlusconi, Chirac and Sarkozy, Blair and Bush. Almost everyone was able to pick up some key, and Putin definitely came to the conclusion that in the West such people will always rule and rule over the resolution of all issues. Later, when the former leaders disappeared one after another, the obsession of Putin's diplomacy was the search for others of the same kind. Fatal failure with Trump is the final chord of this many years of work.

The pinnacle of success and luck for Putin was the last year of his second presidency. It was then, in 2007, the sky-high popularity ratings could be taken seriously. It saw a man who put things in order, improved the lives of ordinary citizens and fabulously enriched the slovenly. He was not released, called the national leader, offered to give up on the rules and go for a third term. Medvedev's interlude was conceived as a break, after which the holiday of power will become even more fun.

And luck was already waning. Since 2008, there has been almost no economic growth. Putininomics, built in general terms in 2003 and 2007, turned out to be an unsuccessful model. It began what is now called the "lost decade". Until then, problems were flooded with petrodollars, which were still incredibly high.

The desire to make the world respect itself, bringing, it would seem, all the new successes, in fact, gave rise to problems that until the last managed not to notice.

I would not exaggerate the projected nature of the Crimean and Donbass operations. Some offensive plans for all azimuths are always made, but they do not necessarily start up. And only when the overthrow of Yanukovych became inevitable, the machine earned. And not for the first time. After all, before that, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And much earlier - Transnistria. And everything sorted out somehow.

But after a few months it became clear that around there is not the world in which Putin was comfortable and all the events turned in his favor.

You can pretty accurately call the time when the legendary luck ran out. This is the middle of 2014: the height of the fighting in the Donbass, the death of the passenger "Boeing", Western sanctions and the beginning of the fall of the oil market.

Ukraine has lost half of the Crimea and Donbas, but not split up and divorce with her in future history books certainly will not be put in plus the head of Russia.

Like the break with the West, perceived first as something frivolous and able to be replayed with the help of practiced techniques. Receptions were applied, after which our country for the first time in the post-Soviet decades in the United States is now considered one of the main enemies.

In addition, oil has become irreversibly cheaper. There is no connection with Putin's actions in this. Just here, too, was not lucky. But if petrodollars are not enough, people have to deal with the new way. Not to Couching.

The ratings supplied by the survey services do not say anything more about folk love. If they even report anything, it's only about fearing saying superfluous and fearful, no matter how worse it becomes..

Putin of today is not at all the lucky one he was in the first half of the government. Around him are two rings of problems. Some were created during the second half of his era. And the others are the returned former ones, the very ones that he was going to win when in 1999 he walked to the Kremlin chair. The power machine, so diligently, seems to be lined up vertically, loses control. And the new appeal of the oligarchs behaves as boldly as their disappeared predecessors.

And most importantly - people are no longer asking to screw nuts. Especially the children of the Putin era, who in recent months have presented one surprise after another.

And the leader, perhaps, was tired.

Increasingly, he interprets on abstract topics with adults and children, who only give pleasant remarks. He always liked to fish, but he also liked meetings with crowds of petitioners who begged for every little thing - and now they seem to start annoying.

It is easy and pleasant to manage a power when everything turns out. It's another matter, when it does not work out, and you start to guess how sweet the choir of dishes. But do not give up? Will have to rule on.