The deployment of these divisions is a serious challenge for our security and defense, Nikolai Sungurovsky, director of military programs at the Razumkov Center, writes in the author's column on NV:.
The Russian divisions reported by Chief of the General Staff Viktor Muzhenko were deployed for a long time. Preparation for their deployment was still during the exercises held in 2014-2015.
True, I'm not sure that these divisions were deployed in full force precisely then. Because if you look at the military budgets of the Russian Federation, while there was a sharp increase in the funds allocated to the simulation tools. That is, instead of tanks there could be models. Nevertheless, this kept the Ukrainian side in suspense, because we were forced to somehow react to this increase in power.
The division is already a full-fledged offensive connection. They are part of two armies and are deployed, roughly speaking, from the borders of Belarus and capture the entire southern district. Of these, you can actually form some kind of offensive grouping. Therefore, the deployment of these divisions is a serious challenge for our security and defense. I see that both the SBU, the external intelligence, and the General Staff see this and take steps to prepare.
It is rather difficult to say in which direction the Russians will act. Given the specifics of hybrid wars, the blow will (if it will be) aimed at those places where it was possible to achieve the greatest destabilization within Ukraine. In addition to eastern Ukraine, this also applies to the south: Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson.
Therefore, the actions of internal destabilization through information throws, terrorist attacks, the use of useful idiots, the political struggle that we ourselves impose, plus the escalation of hostilities on the contact line, plus the concentration of these groups on our borders - all this in a complex characterizes the actions of the Russian Federation in achieving Its objectives.
At the same time, I do not think that the risk of a large-scale war will be very large. He is and the consequences of his very serious, so we have to react to it. But Russia's main goal is still to force the negotiators to make concessions to the Kremlin.
We can not forget about the exercises in Belarus. This can be called the final touch for the creation of such a grouping. Although to seek a link between these teachings and the deployment of divisions on the border with Ukraine - guessing on the coffee grounds. Will the troops remain in Belarus or not, will Lukashenka ask permission for this or will they not ask?.
If we ignore political issues, the creation of another group during the exercises is the final stage of the formation of a sufficiently wide front on the border with Ukraine, which gives us the opportunity to talk about some large-scale offensive. To this we can add the possibility of using aviation, missile forces and. But the risk of such a development is not great, because for such actions Russia will have to pay very seriously.