Options for the transition from Putin.

"Maduro" Death or inadequate state of Putin, which will no longer suit even his comrades-in-arms. In essence, the transition period, which will end with a return to the original state with a new leader or a new condemnation and denial of Putinism. Most likely, absolutely without blood.

"GKChP" A real or decorative attempt to strengthen the Kremlin's power, most likely, by a group of siloviki. Perhaps, as a reaction to liberalization or to an attempt to negotiate with the West. Successful or unsuccessful - it generates instability and a transition process. The structure of stability is collapsing, based on the loyalty of regional leaders and elite centers. Demonstration of sovereignty. Blood is small.

KREMLIN OPPOSITIONER There are a lot of fuss, protests, rallies and demonstrations, clashes, arrests and reconciliations that end in nothing. In April 2018, the society realizes that it was inflated. After disappointments, depression, propaganda clatter "we warned you ..." there is a transition to other options.

"HAVEL" This is an unlikely option, but to indicate the coordinates of the future device of Russia, the relationship with more likely options, it should be described.

A large demonstration, the National Guard or OMON uses weapons against protesters, demonstrations become massive, direct confrontation with the National Guard or OMON. The protesters have weapons or one of the power structures passes to the side of the protesters.

The center of confrontation crystallizes. The Provisional Council is being formed. One of the TV channels passes the appeal of the Provisional Council on the transfer of power. Appeal is replicated on the Internet. Dissolves the Federation Council and the State Duma, heads of state structures and power departments appoints the Provisional Council.

Dobrodeev and Ernst are arrested or put on the international wanted list. Putin and his entourage are arrested. The Provisional Council appoints an interim president and makes an announcement of elections. The interim president issues a decree abolishing unconstitutional laws adopted by the Putin regime, reforming the judicial system, as well as a decree on lustration, eliminating fictitious parties, the ban on political, state and information activities for supporters of the criminal Putin regime.

Lists of employees of law enforcement agencies, political police, propaganda structures, state structures, political police agents are published, which are banned from political, state and information activities.

New parties are registered, preparation for elections to the State Duma, the Federation Council and the President begins. The governors are removed from office. Elections of governors in regions. Troops are withdrawn from Syria, Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, from the Crimea and from the East of Ukraine. Begin the trials of criminals who seized and held power in Russia.

Friends, considering the options, possible scenarios, I draw only a sketch. It is clear that with a radical development of events, we will face the declaration of neutrality in some regions with a "parade of sovereignties". These are natural consequences of events in the center. A more detailed scenario allows a whole tree of possible consequences.

"OCCUPATION" One of Putin's provocations on the border with Russia leads to mass casualties, qualifies as a war crime, a crime against humanity. Meeting of the UN Security Council without Russia, a resolution is adopted that opens the door for action. Air defense systems are suppressed in the European part of Russia, the occupation of Moscow, the arrest of Putin and his entourage.

The Provisional Council is being created. TV channels transmit the appeal of the Provisional Council on the transfer of power. Dissolves the Federation Council and the State Duma, heads of state structures and law enforcement agencies are appointed by the Provisional Council. The Provisional Council appoints the Interim President and makes an announcement of elections. The governors are removed from office. Elections of governors in regions.

The interim president issues a decree abolishing unconstitutional laws adopted by the Putin regime, reforming the judicial system, as well as a decree on lustration, eliminating fictitious parties, the ban on political, state and information activities for supporters of the criminal Putin regime.

Lists of employees of law enforcement agencies, political police, propaganda structures, state structures, political police agents are published, which are banned from political, state and information activities.

A tribunal is being prepared and is being held over criminals of Putin's regime. Begin trial trials of criminals who seized and held power in Russia, propagandists, politicians and heads of law enforcement agencies. New parties are registered, preparation for elections to the State Duma, the Federation Council and the President begins.

Troops are withdrawn from Syria, Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, from the Crimea and from the East of Ukraine. Demilitarization of Russia. Russia is deprived of the right to possess nuclear weapons. A program is being developed to restore the Russian economy.

"HERITAGE DICTATORSHIP" Unlikely limiting option, but for completeness of the picture it is necessary to consider its. In December 2017, the Constitution amends the indefinite presidency, the appointment of members of the Federation Council, the State Duma and governors.

The State Council is being formed, which includes the closest associates of Putin and their relatives. Private property is being liquidated. Subsoil, land, banks, enterprises are declared state property. Repressive laws are adopted against any opposition. Borders are closed. Formation of concentration camps for dissenters. The most active sentenced to death. Distribution of products by card. Military adventures around the world.

"HOLIDAY" An option that many people perceive as the most likely. Slow and long degradation with short periods of recovery. The outer shell of a democratic state is preserved. Effective imitation of opposition activities in a form harmless to the authorities.

Continuation of mass migration from Russia. Including representatives of the power elite. Formalization and consolidation of corruption schemes. Reduction of aggression in foreign and domestic policy. Development of domestic business in the colonial scheme.

Gradual decline in living standards, development of programs to combat poverty. Restructuring of propaganda structures, exclusion from the information environment of annoying people of events and phenomena. Immersion in hibernation. Short periods of recovery after the death of another leader.

"REVOLUTION" Unlikely scenario.

Spontaneous events that give rise to mass unorganized protests. Arson of cars, pogroms of shops, clashes with the police and the National Guard, mass casualties on both sides. The seizure of weapons, armed clashes.

The use of the army. Numerous victims. Partial transition of the army to the side of the insurgents. Military actions on the streets in Moscow and in regional centers. Evacuation of Putin and his entourage to Krasnodar. The creation in Moscow of the Provisional Council, the announcement of Putin's dismissal.

Formation of two power centers. Preparing for large-scale military operations. Aviation bombing of Moscow and St. Petersburg. Putin's use of chemical weapons ... UN Security Council ... 9. "KUWAIT" To prevent the development of Ukraine's cooperation with the US, Russia is making offensive actions in the East of Ukraine. With the help of the United States and NATO, Ukraine effectively reflects aggression and displaces Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine.

Not ready to accept defeat, knowing that similar events will follow in the Crimea, Putin concentrates troops on the border with Ukraine for a retaliatory strike. As promised by irresponsible politicians, Russia is using tactical nuclear weapons.

A "Ukrainian coalition" is being created, the UN Security Council at a meeting where Russia is not allowed to take the necessary decisions. The complete rout of the Russian army takes place within a month. Occupation administration begins work in Moscow.

10. "DREAM OF PUTIN" Unreal.

Trump suggests Putin on July 7 at a meeting during the G20 summit to hold global talks in Reykjavik. Negotiations occur on September 20. The agreement on medium and short-range missiles is being restored. Signing of the agreement on the reduction of nuclear weapons by another 20%. Americans leave Ukraine to Putin, stop (and NATO) military cooperation with Ukraine, guarantee its non-entry into NATO.

Russia withdraws troops from the East of Ukraine. Crimea is recognized as the territory of Russia and declared a territory without nuclear weapons. Putin surrenders Assad, but leaves two military bases in Syria.

Sanctions are removed. Trump helps to make oil at a price of 55 dollars. Putin returns to G8 full member. The legalization of the capital of Russian officials in the United States. Putin promises never again to interfere in the elections in the US, and Trump - in elections in Russia. All political prisoners in Russia are freed. Preparation of Putin's visit to the US begins.

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