Today, in more than half the world's countries, where two-thirds of humanity live, fertility rates have fallen below the population replacement rate, which is 2.1 children per woman, according to a McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) study on the situation with demographics in the world. And if the “big economies” are facing a demographic collapse until 2100, then in Ukraine it has already come.

So, according to the study, in 2023 the average birth rate in the world was 2.3 children per woman. And this slightly exceeded the coefficient of reproduction of the population. According to the study, over the past quarter century, the birth rate has decreased in 90% of the world's countries..

As noted in OBOZ. UA, McKinsey Global Institute analysts showed data on fertility around the world on a map.

Blue and blue zones mean that these territories are in a certain " In the " And this means that a couple of adults will leave a couple of children behind and generation will be replaced.

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The best situation with the birth rate has developed in Subsachara Africa today, because there are 10 adults on average, 44 children leave behind. Most children are born in the poorest countries.

Ukraine, like the great China (Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore), are depicted on the map as the darkest spots. This means that the birth rate here is the worst in the world.. However, if one child is born in China for one family, then in Ukraine the birth rate is for 10 families six children.

At the same time, the situation is bad not only in Ukraine, but throughout Europe. On average, on the European continent, the birth rate is 1.4 children in one pair or 14 children in 10 pairs. This is twice the figure than in Ukraine, but significantly worse than it should be to stop depopulation.

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Previously, the head of the Department of Modeling of Socio-Economic Processes and Structures at the Institute of Demography, Vladimir Sarioglo, noted that among the main demographic challenges facing Ukraine are population decline, declining birth rates, large-scale migration, deformation of the age-sex structure, population aging, gender problems, etc..

Given these challenges, the Institute of Demography consider three possible scenarios of changing the population by 2036: basic, moderately pessimistic and pessimistic. In particular, according to the basic scenario by 2036, the population of Ukraine will be 31.6 million people (according to estimates, in 2023 it amounted to 31.7 million). According to moderately pessimistic, the population of our country will decrease to 30.2 million, and on pessimistic-to 27.6 million.

Moreover, a decrease in the birth rate is predicted in each of the scenarios. For example, in the baseline scenario, 234 thousand babies are projected to be born by 2036, compared to 267 thousand in 2023.

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In each of the scenarios, a decrease in part of people under the age of 35 is also expected to reduce. The age structure of the population will also change; in the base scenario, the average age for women will be 48 years, and for men – 43 years. In a pessimistic scenario, the average age for women will be 50 years, and for men - 45.

At the same time, Yuri Ganushchak, in the article “Territory questions in the strategy of the demographic development of Ukraine until 2040,” notes that by 2040 there will be only 29 million Ukrainians, and by 2050, 25 million in general. And even if you introduce measures determined by the concept of strategy, the number of population in 2030 will be 34 million, but in 2050 it will still fall to 31.6 million inhabitants. And this is if the war, or at least its active phase, ends.