Back in the fall, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Senior Researcher, Head of the Department of Applied Meteorology and Climatology of the UkrSMI State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Vera Balabukh in her forecast for ZN. UA predicts abnormally warm winter 2022-2023 with more temperature records in January.

In a new forecast published on Facebook by the Ukrhydrometcenter, she told what kind of spring awaits Ukrainians in 2023.

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Vera Balabukh recalled that the average monthly air temperature in January was 1-5 degrees above the climatic norm, and in the Carpathian and Transcarpathian regions - even 5-6 degrees.? C or more. We are talking about the new climate normal 1991-2020..

“If we evaluate the weather conditions relative to 1961-1990. , then these anomalies will be even larger by 2-3? And these are the monthly average air temperature anomalies! Daily temperature anomalies often reached 10-15? That is, on certain days of January, the air temperature was the same as is usually observed in November, or even October,” she noted..

The reason for such abnormally warm weather, according to the expert, is climate change caused by human activity, and the features of atmospheric circulation that were observed in the northern hemisphere. These processes include, first of all, the Southern Oscillation, which has been in a negative phase for the third year in a row - La Nina and affects the weather in many regions, and Ukraine as well..

Gradually, La Nina loses its intensity, and already at the beginning of summer, the Southern Oscillation can turn into a positive phase - El Nino, which will cause other processes in the northern hemisphere. However, despite the decrease in the intensity of La Nina, its impact on the global atmospheric circulation will still persist until the end of February and the beginning of spring..

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts, spring in Ukraine is expected to be warm. The average air temperature for the season may be 1-2?

The same anomalies are expected for the average monthly air temperature. Such air temperature in February and March indicates the early development of spring processes.. However, the stratospheric warming that has begun to develop may increase the meridional circulation of the atmosphere and will contribute to arctic air inlets from the north, northwest and east, which will cause unstable weather, especially in the first half of spring.

Recall, weather forecasters told what will be the spring of 2023 in Kyiv.