Ukraine is preparing for a large-scale Russian offensive in the Donbass. Moscow has amassed hundreds of thousands of troops in the east of the country, using brute force and numerical advantage tactics in an attempt to destroy the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, writes Foreign Policy.

Amid the recent surge in hostilities, many military analysts believe that the expected Russian offensive is already underway and is expected to accelerate as the first anniversary of the invasion approaches..

" More and more Russian soldiers are arriving at the front,” says Jonathan Vseviov, Secretary General of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

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Ukrainian officials estimate that since mobilization began last September, Russian forces inside the country have crossed the 300,000 mark.. Military analysts believe that figure could be somewhat lower, but even more conservative estimates of Russia's presence in Ukraine far exceed the invasion force that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to invade the country last February, and this time they are concentrated in eastern Ukraine..

“We expect a new, huge invasion in the next 10 days,” a Ukrainian military man, who spoke on condition of anonymity about the intelligence plans, told Foreign Policy..

Over the weekend, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said he expected an escalation of Russian operations on the anniversary of the February 24th invasion..

As Russian troops suffered significant losses in the first months of the war, the Kremlin announced a partial mobilization in the fall to bring in about 300,000 new troops.. Despite the chaotic nature of recruitment and insufficient training of recruits, the mobilization effort appears to have been successful as enough troops have been deployed to halt Ukraine's advance - albeit at a significant cost to Russian forces.. US and Western officials estimate that as many as 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in combat, the New York Times reported last week..

The recruits are significantly less equipped and trained than Moscow's initial invasion force sent to Ukraine in February last year..

In many cases, recruits were used to carry out human wave attacks, a tactic popular with the Soviet Red Army that involves moving across open terrain while coming under heavy fire from Ukrainian forces, according to Rand Corporation military analyst Dara Masikot..

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Russia's brutal attacks have crippled the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which now have to contend with a much denser Russian presence..

“Many of the factors that allowed the Ukrainians to successfully conduct a counter-offensive in Kharkiv no longer exist.. Lines are thicker. They built them. They dug in,” says Massicot.

Russia also began to arm for a future offensive. The Ukrainian military estimates that Russia already has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet-era Grad and Smerch multiple rocket launchers, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters ready for a new strike..

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According to a senior US military official, the Pentagon described Russian troops, already deployed to the battlefield to plug defensive holes, as "

Some European politicians believe that Russia's mobilization never stopped after the September call announced by the Kremlin..

“Mobilization is not over. Now in Russia she goes, but quietly. They do not raise this hype because of internal considerations,” Vseviov said..

Carolina Hird, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said reports are constantly coming in that mobilization efforts are under the hood..

“We constantly get the message that people are receiving summons for mobilization, or, for example, employers, enterprises receive lists of workers who they need to send to the military registration and enlistment office,” she says..

The Pentagon believes that the Kremlin has begun sending tens of thousands of troops to the front to compensate for the losses that the Russian army suffered as a result of the fighting in the cities of Bakhmut and Soledar in the Donbass, but Kyiv believes that Putin can go even further by introducing new troops tentatively on February 24, on the anniversary of the full-scale invasion.

“This is much more than what it was during the first wave. They do not pay attention to either casualties or losses,” said the Ukrainian military.

While there is no sign that Putin has abandoned his overall goal of completely taking over Ukraine, analysts and Ukrainian officials expect a future offensive to focus on eastern Ukraine amid a surge in fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions..

“It seems to me that there were probably some instructions from the Kremlin, transmitted to the Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov. I think the challenge for them is to get to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk as much as possible,” says Masikot, referring to two of the four Ukrainian regions that the Kremlin annexed in September..

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But fears that even ill-trained Russian units could break through Ukrainian lines with human wave-style strikes have led Kyiv to resort to more urgent appeals for Western weapons, despite nearly $9 billion in military aid to Ukraine since December—nearly 50% up.. more than the entire annual pre-war defense budget of Kyiv.

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However, some of the key weapons proposed by the United States to counter the Russian mass of bullets and bodies, such as Patriot missile defense systems, Bradley armored fighting vehicles, and Abrams main battle tanks, could only enter the country in March or April - this is the fastest. And ground-based small-diameter bombs can reach Kyiv no sooner than in nine months.

While Moscow is already showing signs of stepping up its efforts in the Donbas, many analysts believe that the Russian military is keen to move as far as possible before the arrival of Western military equipment from the new list..

" This will be very difficult. We don't have enough ammo. Tanks will come later. Everything will be later. By the time the Abrams are sent to us, we will already see how the Russian counteroffensive will go,” said Ukrainian MP Alexandra Ustinova..