Potential new Russian offensive timed to coincide with the anniversary of the invasion is actively discussed in Ukraine. He will also seek to make significant progress on the front as long as Ukraine receives Western tanks.. However, Russian bloggers and propagandists doubt its success even before it starts.. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for February 6.

“Ukrainian officials estimate that Russian troops are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late February,” the ISW report says, “which will allow Russian troops to strike Ukrainian positions before the arrival of Western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.”.

In particular, ISW took into account the statement of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov that the Russians want to time the offensive to coincide with the anniversary of their invasion.. The institute's analysts also cited Natalya Gumenyuk, spokeswoman for the Southern Operational Command of Ukraine, as saying that Russian troops are most likely focused on offensive operations in the east, and not in the south of Ukraine.. They also drew attention to the words of the chairman of the Luhansk OVA, Sergei Gaidai, that Russian troops continue to transfer reserves to the Luhansk region.

However, ISW analysts say there is already skepticism in the Russian public space about Russia's ability to launch a successful offensive in late February.. In particular, according to ISW, a blogger associated with the Wagner Group noted that the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, who now commands Russian troops in Ukraine, has a limited time window to launch a large-scale offensive operation in Ukraine before it is. And the Russian ultra-nationalist and terrorist Igor Girkin predicted that a determined Russian offensive would not succeed until Russia mobilized more manpower, industry, and the economy, and an attack without such mobilization would soon culminate..

“Both observations highlight that the Russian military leadership appears to be in a hurry to launch a decisive offensive, likely ahead of the arrival of Western military aid and a slushy spring season in Ukraine around April that thwarted Russian mechanized maneuvers in the spring of 2022,” it said..

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Recall that Russian President Vladimir Putin set his military another deadline for the complete occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions - they must do this before March. ISW also predicted that a new Russian offensive would most likely take place not in the direction of the city of Zaporozhye, but in the Luhansk region.