Russian President Vladimir Putin deliberately draws attention to the northeastern sections of the border between Ukraine and Russia in order to divert the attention of the Ukrainian command from other areas of the front and at the same time further intimidate his citizens with Ukrainian “neo-Nazi formations”. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for February 1.

ISW analysts took into account the meeting on the restoration of housing infrastructure in the Crimea, Belgorod, Bryansk, which Putin held on February 1. At it, he noted that his administration prioritizes stopping Ukrainian shelling of Russian border regions, but this task is “a matter of the military department”.

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“Putin’s focus on the danger of Ukrainian shelling of the border regions probably serves a dual purpose.. He facilitates an information operation aimed at presenting the war in Ukraine as an existential threat to Russian citizens in order to gain domestic support for a protracted war, the ISW report says.. “Putin can also set conditions for escalating cross-border raids to prevent and disperse Ukrainian forces from critical areas of advance by pinning them to the northeastern border areas.”.

ISW reiterates that a new Russian invasion from Belarus is now extremely unlikely, and the ongoing information operation to attach Ukrainian troops to the northern Ukrainian-Belarusian border appears to be faltering as Ukrainian officials increasingly view the threat as unlikely.

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Recall, despite assurances that there are no prerequisites for a new offensive against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, ISW noted that Belarus itself has actually become a large training ground for Russian troops..