The Institute for the Study of War calls the defense of Bakhmut strategically correct, despite its cost for Ukraine. Although further efforts in this direction will be significant and will be accompanied by similar counteroffensive efforts in other sectors, Kyiv would pay a significant price for the capture of Bakhmut by Russian troops..
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It should also not be dismissed as a seemingly “political” calculation to lightly take on the defense of Bakhmut – Russian forces occupy more than 100,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, including numerous Ukrainian cities, and commit atrocities against Ukrainian civilians in the occupied territories..
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It is perfectly reasonable for political and military leaders to weigh these factors when deciding whether to hold or cede certain population centers..
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Previously, Ukrainian forces used a similar model of gradual attrition to force Russian operations in certain areas to end after months of suffering heavy losses of personnel and equipment in the pursuit of minor tactical gains.. Russian troops tried for months to break through effective Ukrainian defenses in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in the early summer of 2022 and captured Lysychansk only after a controlled withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the area.
However, the capture of Lisichansk and the administrative border of the Luhansk region quickly proved unimportant for Russian forces, and the end result of the Ukrainian defense of the area was the forced end of the Russian offensive in the Luhansk region, which led to a general stagnation of Russian offensive operations in the Donbas in the summer-autumn of 2022.
The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is likely to contribute to a similar outcome - Russian troops have been sending manpower and equipment to the area since May 2022 and so far have not made any significant progress that seriously threatens the Ukrainian defense of the area. The ISW continues to re-evaluate its assessment that the Russian offensive on Bakhmut could be a culminating one, but continues to assess that the UAF is effectively squeezing Russian troops at Bakhmut, thereby hindering Russia's ability to continue its offensive in other parts of the theater of operations..
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