The Russian war against Ukraine will continue throughout 2023, and may even drag on into 2024-2025.
Matthew Kronig, Associate Director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, told Foreign Policy..
“There were moments this year when many experts believed that the settlement of the conflict would be quick. Will Putin be able to capture Kyiv in a few days? Will the Ukrainian counter-offensive lead to the collapse of the Russian army? Now I think it's become obvious that this war will last for years.. And that is why it is very important that governments in the West abandon short-term thinking and adopt a strategy for the future of Ukraine for the long term,” he said..
Emma Ashford, an expert at the Stimson Center and a professor at Georgetown University, agreed with him.. However, she allowed a "
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“The cost of war is out of control for everyone: for Russians, Europeans, Americans and definitely for Ukrainians. Public attitudes across Europe lean towards conflict resolution. Even here in the US, 47% of Americans now want the Biden administration to look for ways to end the war.. The path of least resistance is probably to continue the war. But there is a possibility that the pressure will increase,” Ashford predicts..
She also noted that elections will be held in Estonia, Finland and the Czech Republic in the first half of next year, and in Poland and Spain at the end of 2023.. Ashford also recalled the protests in Iran, which she also considers partly related to the consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine..
Iran worries me. On top of mass protests that have already been violently suppressed in some cases, the nuclear deal is dead.. The US and Iran are increasingly moving in the direction of a collision,” Ashford said..
Kronig believes that international efforts to contain Tehran's nuclear program will finally fail in 2023. Because the negotiations led to nothing. Joe Biden administration leaves military response scenario on the table. But according to the expert, many politicians suspect that this is a bluff.. Meanwhile, Tehran continues to develop its nuclear program.. White House says Iran needs weeks to produce enough enriched uranium to build one nuclear bomb.
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“I don’t think Iran will conduct nuclear tests in 2023.
It will take time before there is a warhead that could be mounted on a ballistic missile. But I think 2023 will be the year when a nuclear Iran becomes a fact,” Kronig said..
Ashford added that 2023 will not be more peaceful than 2022. However, according to her, a new era has already begun..
“Next year will mark the 20th anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq.. And now it seems like something far away, from another period of history,” she said..