When Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised American aid for Ukraine before Congress on Wednesday, plans to hand over a battery of Patriot air defense systems to the Ukrainian army were already in the works.. As well as Russian plans to overcome and destroy these weapons, because one Patriot system can only be in one place..
As Tom Karako, Director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Missile Defense Project, told Forbes, the Patriot is very effective in protecting the area where it is deployed..
“This is a multi-tasking system for protection against aircraft at high altitude, against cruise missiles, and most importantly, against ballistic missiles.. This gives the Ukrainians top-level air defense in a specific area.. It is the Ukrainians who will decide what kind of district it will be,” the expert said..
However, with only one battery in hand, it will be difficult to decide what exactly to protect with it.. Russia has lately focused its strikes on Ukraine's electricity infrastructure, based on the theory that a lack of light and heat could not only undermine civilian morale, but also facilitate a subsequent attack in the affected region..
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It is clear that Ukraine values \u200b\u200bits critical infrastructure. So, most likely, the Patriot system will be deployed near such objects.. This shortens the list of places that Russian attack planners should pay attention to, allowing for the presence of new American air defenses.. It also makes it easier for Russian intelligence officers and their agents inside Ukraine to locate the Patriot battery..
Forbes admits that Russian intelligence services are also well aware of the functionality of Patriot, especially the system's radars, and the range of its missiles.. Publicly available information says that Patriot radars detect threats within a radius of 150 to 250 kilometers, and missiles can destroy them at a distance of 40 to 100 kilometers.. At the same time, the maximum height at which they can intercept the target reaches 24 kilometers.. Even if these numbers are less than the actual specs, they still roughly outline the protective dome that a Patriot battery can provide..
“Russia, no doubt, has better figures. She also has some experience working in close proximity to the Patriot systems that the US deployed on Turkey's southern border with Syria in 2013.. And, most likely, performing operations in Syria since 2015, Russian forces could evaluate this weapon, ”writes Forbes.
Each Patriot battery consists of a radar, a control center, generators and 5-8 launchers and support equipment. Need about 90 people to run it. Because it is a theater anti-aircraft missile defense system, the Patriot is mobile, but not a “super mobile” system,” Karako explains.. The system can launch various types of missiles. Each launcher can be armed with 4 to 16 missiles depending on their type.. Due to the size and scope of the Patriot battery, and the number of people operating it, it is easier to spot..
" Russian forces could potentially track and identify her location. Everything will depend on the tactics and techniques used by Ukrainian operators to hide this information.. It takes the same deception and constant movement as it takes to hide HIMARS and ammunition.. I don't think they can shoot and run as fast as artillery units.. But this problem concerns not only Patriot,” the expert explained..
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At the same time, the likelihood that the battery is protecting an object that Russia would like to destroy is already a problem for the aggressor..
“Even limited protection can have a strategic effect. For many months, the Russians have not actively used their fighters and bombers, despite all expectations.. The imperfect Ukrainian air defense system affects Russian behavior, even if the Patriot does not cover all of Ukraine with a giant dome,” Karako said..
Patriot Battery Cost $1.1 Billion. In this amount, 400 million dollars is the cost of the system itself, and another 690 million is the price of missiles to it.. Such a high cost means that it is unlikely that these weapons will be used to destroy technologically cheap threats, such as drones and medium-range artillery..
“Under such conditions, you would want to save ammunition as much as possible,” Karako said, recalling that the latest Patriot interceptor missiles cost $4.1 million per unit.. Previous generations of rockets cost about half as much.
Such a high cost per shot from the Patriot means that the system is deployed in areas where other Ukrainian air defense systems are present, destroying cheap targets.. Also, if Russia discovers the location of the Patriot, it may try to overload it by launching Iskander missiles, drones and Iranian-made small-range ballistic missiles.. Such a mixture could potentially break through the protection of the Patriot battery, striking a critical target or damaging the battery itself..
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“Such a maneuver would cost Russia dearly, but from a purely financial point of view, still not as expensive as the cost of a store for a Patriot. If the Ukrainian operators do not fire, the target the battery was supposed to protect could be destroyed.. And this will give the Russian forces both success in completing the task and reputational benefits from defeating the Patriot system..
Forbes adds that Russia could try to destroy the battery through covert operations, which would be very difficult to execute.. However, the publication believes that the best strategy for Moscow would be to simply avoid this one battery, making its factor as insignificant as possible in the war..
" Since we are only shipping one battery, when it is deployed it will most likely not be returned.. And if the Ukrainians start wasting ammunition, they will ask for more, right? And we don’t have tons of PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles that we could give,” Karako said..
The publication writes that the Patriot battery may appear in Ukraine in February. However, this will only be an important symbol, not a game-changing factor..