Offensive actions in the Donetsk region - in the areas of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, as well as a campaign of massive missile strikes of the Ukrainian type, including critical infrastructure - are two military tools that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is now using to persuade Kyiv to negotiate. This is the conclusion in the latest report by analysts from the US Institute for the Study of War..

They note that after fleeing from Kherson and the right bank of the region, the Russian military intensified their actions throughout the Donetsk region..

" “The current Russian offensive efforts around Bakhmut and in the west of the Donetsk region are part of efforts to carry out this order.”.

The Russian leader, analysts say, is still hopeful that offensive operations of this nature will jeopardize the ability of the Defense Forces to defend their territories and cause great damage to the Ukrainian army.. As a result, Kyiv in such conditions should negotiate a ceasefire.. This factor will allow the Russian Federation to accumulate forces to intensify the war in the future..

But ISW is convinced that neither the situation in the Donetsk direction of the front, nor missile terror will force Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table with the aggressor.. They emphasize that after the enchanting liberation of parts of the Kharkov and Kherson regions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not lose the initiative.

Thus, Putin can set the stage for a third, successive military operation in case these two attempts fail to achieve their goals by preparing for a new offensive against Ukraine in the winter of 2023..

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Recall that the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov believes that Russian troops will go on a new offensive in February.. At the same time, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny notes that it is not yet clear in which direction this will happen.. But he does not rule out that the occupiers will again try to capture Kyiv, starting the operation from Belarus..

It should be noted that in Ukraine, since the beginning of a full-scale war, it has never been completely ruled out that the Kremlin may launch a new operation in the north.. However, experts have always questioned the ability of the occupying forces (including the Belarusian army) to succeed during the second attempt to occupy the Ukrainian capital.. Even now, ISW analysts note that if Putin does go for it, he will fail again.. The fact is that in recent months the Armed Forces of Ukraine have significantly strengthened the defense in the north, while the Russian troops have greatly degraded.