The Russians will not succeed in capturing Kyiv, even if they really try to do it again and attack for the second time from the territory of Belarus. This opinion was expressed by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their report for December 15..

“It is extremely unlikely that Russian forces will attack northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 more successfully than they did in February 2022.. Russia's conventional forces are severely degraded and lack the combat power they had when Russia attempted (and failed) its full blow attempt to capture Kyiv in February 2022,” the ISW report says..

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Analysts came to this conclusion for several reasons.. Firstly, Russian troops were unable to maintain their gains throughout Ukraine and lost more than 70,000 square kilometers of occupied territory after they left Kyiv..

Secondly, in Bakhmut they move no more than 100-200 meters per day after the main efforts are concentrated there..

Third, Russia has not established air superiority, let alone air supremacy in Ukraine, and has largely exhausted its arsenal of precision-guided munitions..

At the same time, the report indicated a very different assessment of the Ukrainian Defense Forces: “Ukrainian troops, for their part, have prepared a significant defense in northern Ukraine and are now better prepared for defense than in February 2022.

The terrain near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is not favorable for maneuver warfare and possible invasion routes from Belarus to Kyiv to pass through reliable blocks in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, which Ukrainian troops now have experience in protecting..

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Recall, on December 13, 2022, Belarus conducted an extraordinary check of the combat readiness of its troops. However, the British Ministry of Defense also does not believe in a new offensive of Belarusian and Russian troops in northern Ukraine..

Belarusian political scientist Dmitry Bolkunets believes that the current situation in Belarus threatens to escalate. tensions in the region on New Year's Eve.