A complete blackout in Ukraine is desirable for the enemy, but an unlikely scenario, says Dmitry Sakharuk, Executive Director of DTEK.
According to him, a blackout is theoretically possible, but if the system turns on within three or four or even six hours during the cold season, this will not lead to critical consequences..
“It will be worse when it will be impossible to turn on the system. This may be due to the significant destruction of generation and substations, but if the networks are repaired in time after the shelling, then the likelihood of such a scenario will be low,” Sakharuk added..
However, Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, notes that it may take from three days to a week to restore the energy system of Ukraine..
“In a favorable scenario, it will take three days, in an unfavorable scenario, seven to ten days to restore the system and complete consumption in the system. There is such a problem - no one in the world has ever conducted such an experiment. No one in the world has thrown a system the size of a Ukrainian one into a blackout and has not tried to raise it - there are no such examples,” Kharchenko said..
Sakharuk said that six power plants in Ukraine are now damaged, 900 pieces of equipment are needed for repairs, and 9,000 pieces of equipment are needed to restore the network.. Moreover, the elements of the stations are much more expensive and harder to find..
After a massive Russian missile attack on November 15, most blackouts were recorded in Vinnitsa and Lviv, as well as in Ternopil regions.
But the most difficult situation is in Kherson, where there is no electricity at all, restoration work continues, which is complicated by heavy mining of territories.. Difficult situation in other front-line territories: in Zaporozhye, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy regions.
“There are a lot of blackouts in Kyiv and the region, because there is a crazy shortage here due to network restrictions. Especially Kyiv today suffers a lot, because in addition to hourly shutdowns, emergency shutdowns are still going on,” he stressed..