What awaits the south-east of Ukraine after the annexation of the Russian Federation – DW

01 October 2022, 15:04 | Ukraine
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The mood in the occupied parts of Donetsk and Kherson regions is significantly different, writes the author DW.

In his opinion, since 2014, a kind of forced separation of the population has taken place in the Donbass: hundreds of thousands, primarily young people, left the self-proclaimed " The elderly remained, those who could not leave or who supported separatism.

“Someone’s dream will come true, there are always such people,” says Andreas Umland, an expert at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies. It looks like there are more of them in the east than in the south of Ukraine.

Some in Donbass supported the annexation, partly because of the fear that if Ukrainian power returns, they will have to answer in court, Sergey Garmash, a native of Donetsk, editor-in-chief of the Ostrov online publication and former.

"

However, according to him, no one knows how many there are..

In the south of Ukraine, in the occupied areas of Donbass, parts of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, changes in society also occurred during the six months of annexation. Hundreds of thousands have left, but among those who remain there are many who continue to support Kyiv.

"

Unlike Crimea, where two-thirds were ethnic Russians at the time of annexation, in the east and south of Ukraine this figure is less than half, the author writes..

According to the 2001 census, the highest percentage of Russians - about 40% - was in 2014 in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In Zaporozhye and Kherson, there are significantly fewer Russians, about 25% and 15%, respectively..

The experience of Crimea gives an idea of \u200b\u200bhow events can develop after the annexation. According to the author, it will be a mixture of a stick for those who disagree and a carrot for the loyal.. Wages and pensions will rise, Russia will try to restore the destroyed infrastructure.

By annexing territories in the southeast of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is changing the fate of millions of people living there. They have a choice: accept or resist..

Ukraine and most countries of the world have declared that they do not recognize either the annexation itself or the "

Everything connected with Ukraine will be superseded as quickly as possible by Russian: laws, currency, communications, language, education. One of the main goals is a return to the cultural Russification of regions that the Kremlin considers historically its own..

Residents of the annexed regions will have to choose: accept the changes or resist - at the risk of their lives. "

According to him, many will be "

There are already reports of repressions - detentions and torture of those who sympathize with Kyiv. The experience of Crimea shows that the search for dissidents can continue for years.

Men face a special test - they are called to war with Ukraine as part of the Russian army. It is possible that the Kremlin is trying to reduce the risks of the partisan movement in this way..

Ukrainians of the east and south will have to pass various forms of loyalty tests to the new government, for example, to obtain Russian citizenship. So it was in the Crimea, in the Donbass, this process began several years ago.

But there may be differences from the Crimean scenario. In particular, observers do not expect large-scale resettlement from Russia, as in Crimea. The reason is the ongoing hostilities.

“There will be no return of Donetsk people from Russia either, they are used there as a working resource, but there are no jobs in the Donbass, the main enterprises have been destroyed,” says Sergey Garmash.

" “The Russians will be afraid that they will have to leave here again.”.

The question of a new regional government remains open. Will the annexed territories be headed by local Ukrainians or will they be managers sent from Russia?

While the occupying authorities of the Russian Federation relied on local - former members of the pro-Russian Party of Regions, ex-president Viktor Yanukovych who fled to Russia.

Will Yanukovych himself, his Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and other members of the Ukrainian elite who fled now return to the Donbass

Experts do not exclude this, but do not believe that these people will return to power. During their absence, new elites have formed that will not give up, Garmash believes. Perhaps the leadership of new regions will pass from Ukrainians to managers who came from Russia. At some levels, this process has already begun..

[see_also ids\u003d"

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed " As expected, the attempt to annex Ukrainian territories faced harsh criticism and non-recognition in the world.




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