Satellite images of the air base in Saki on the occupied Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea do not lie. It is estimated that at least 9 Russian fighter jets were destroyed.. Although the actual number may be higher. Some cars were left with only burnt spots after a series of powerful explosions on Tuesday.

Thus, one strike took away a fifth of all recorded combat losses of Russian aviation.. According to Oryx analysts, the Ukrainian military has already destroyed 47 aircraft of the Russian Air Force, writes The Guardian. Of course, Moscow has dozens more aircraft in its arsenal.. But the scale of the blow and the propaganda value cannot be overestimated..

Although this was not the first Ukrainian attack in Crimea since the beginning of the war, it was the most significant. And not only because it happened 177 kilometers from the front line.. Explosions thundered in front of thousands of Russian tourists. Videos show Russians sunbathing nearby hurriedly escaping amid puffs of black smoke following the explosions.. And then they created traffic jams, running away from the Crimea. Ukrainian propagandists did not waste time. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine published a video aimed at ordinary Russian holidaymakers. To the song Cruel Summer by Bananarama, the Russians were told that they had several options for where to spend their summer vacation, "

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The Russian public may see the war against Ukraine differently. But sometimes the news of defeat still breaks through. The destruction of aircraft in Saki can be compared to the sinking of the cruiser Moskva in April or the loss of more than 70 armored vehicles during a failed attempt to cross the river near Belogorovka in March. "

But losses are a fact of war. Therefore, the question remains whether the explosions in Crimea will have a political and military impact.. Ukraine refused to publicly take responsibility. Although officials do this in private conversations. This may mean that Kyiv wants to keep the mystery of how the attack was carried out.. And not least because he hopes to repeat this success again..

To be sure, the perpetrators of the strike knew that they were hitting more than one ammunition or fuel depot, stupidly located next to the aircraft, which led to massive explosions and fire. This high level of accuracy requires clear intelligence on the ground.. And this is a worrying moment for Russia. Most likely, the shot was fired from a relatively short distance and, possibly, with the help of a kamikaze drone. This could have been done by special forces or Ukrainian partisans.. The use of long-range missiles is also not excluded. And in theory, the Russian base could be fired upon with Neptune missiles from Odessa. But the available videos do not provide evidence to support any of these versions..

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Justin Bronk, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said that the main military significance of the attack on the air base in Saki does not even concern the number of aircraft destroyed, but the impact on the feeling of security of the Russian Air Force.. According to the expert, the Russian military will now be less confident in their ability to protect their forces at a distance of several hundred kilometers from the front line.. This may mean that Russia will have to commit more troops, equipment and more efforts to protect its bases.. That means it won't all make it to the front. Or the Russian Air Force will have to operate from more distant bases. But this will reduce their effectiveness..

Ukraine's short-term goal is to attempt a counter-offensive by autumn to force Russian troops out of Kherson..

To do this, her army attacks enemy military bases and ammunition depots in order to break down Russian logistics, thus reducing Moscow's ability to defend and support its forces in Kherson.. The only question is whether such attacks will really weaken Russia's capabilities or only bring propaganda benefits.. This can only be verified if Ukraine accumulates enough forces to go on the offensive.. Meanwhile, it is worrying that Russia will definitely look for a way to respond to the attack in Crimea..