On the front lines in southeastern Ukraine, there is little sign that a major counter-offensive is already underway.. For weeks, Western intelligence and military analysts have been arguing that a Ukrainian campaign to recapture the strategically important Kherson and its environs is imminent.. But in the trenches a few kilometers from the Russian positions in this direction, Ukrainian soldiers are hiding from the increasingly powerful shelling of enemy artillery, unable to go on the offensive themselves..

“They are shooting from the left, right, over our heads,” a 45-year-old soldier from the 63rd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces told the Washington Post, describing the intensification of Russian shelling over the past week..

At night, Russian forces conduct reconnaissance missions, looking for weaknesses in the defense line that stretches into the countryside.. The liberation of Kherson would be a crushing defeat for Vladimir Putin's ambitions in Ukraine. The region is critically important for providing Crimea with fresh water. The water issue has cost Russia billions of rubles since it annexed the peninsulas in 2014.. Also, the Kherson region plays an important role for a potential Russian offensive in the direction of Odessa.

But if Ukraine wants to achieve President Volodymyr Zelensky's announced goal of ending the war before the end of the year, then time is running out.. And the current situation on the ground looks more like a protracted and debilitating stalemate.. Locals who have fled villages in the Kherson region say Russia is moving forces into the region to strengthen its position. Local officials are also wary of the movement of enemy troops..

" We know they're trying to reinforce their positions.. The enemy has greatly increased the presence of its artillery along the entire line,” said Alexander Vilkul, head of the military administration in Krivoy Rog..

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Due to the lack of basic artillery and armored vehicles needed for the offensive, Ukraine has focused on operations behind the front line.. Among them is a mysterious attack on a Russian airbase in Crimea.. The peninsula has become the main supply hub for Russian operations in the Kherson region. Until now, it was believed that Ukrainian forces were not capable of striking Russian targets in Crimea.. The publication recalls that Ukraine has succeeded in recent months in the southern direction, liberating a number of villages in the Kherson region. But the offensive actually stopped. And the soldiers now occupy vulnerable positions in the open area. The roads used by the Ukrainian military to travel to the front lines among scorched wheat fields are littered with craters from previous strikes, in particular by Russian Orlan drones..

“There is nowhere to hide,” said Yuri, who has been continuously participating in the war from the very first day..

His unit is armed with old Soviet machine guns and machine guns from 1944, as well as modern anti-tank missiles.. And the task is to keep the line. Ukrainian military officials remain silent on timetable for large-scale offensive. But they say they need more weapons from the West before they can start the operation.. One unnamed official told the Washington Post that Ukraine lacks the capacity to launch a massive offensive anywhere along a 2,000-kilometer front..

“We need to be honest, now Ukraine does not have the necessary amount of weapons for a counteroffensive. It is still possible to achieve a result, but this should be the result of a reasonable Ukrainian strategy, and not confronting Russia with equal force. It is very difficult to match the forces of the enemy,” said the Ukrainian government’s defense and intelligence adviser on condition of anonymity..

Major General Dmitry Marchenko, commander of the Ukrainian army, also said this week that the transfer of Western military aid in small pieces makes any offensive action very difficult.. However, he expressed optimism that the dynamics could change soon..

“I think once we receive the entire aid package, our counteroffensive will be very fast,” Marchenko said, urging the people of Kherson to “be patient a little.”.

Some have also scaled down their expectations for a Ukrainian counter-offensive, indicating that the situation is indeed dynamic.. In recent days, Russia has launched a new attack in eastern Ukraine, trying to capture cities there..

“Everything is changing every day because the enemy is moving their forces and we are changing our tactics and maneuvers.. The situation is changing and plans too,” said Yuriy Sak, adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine..

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Spokeswoman for the Southern Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Natalya Gumenyuk said the counter-offensive is " She also noted that there is a " Some have even suggested that the Ukrainian offensive was a deliberately overblown information campaign aimed at pulling Russian firepower from the east.. Russia is trying to strengthen its forces in the south. In the last week alone, three thousand soldiers arrived in the Kherson region. Russian contingent on the right bank of the Dnieper increased to 15,000 troops. Most of them are elite airborne troops helping depleted Russian forces after holding the line for months, analyst Kirill Mikhailov said.. Residents fleeing the occupation also talk about the pulling of Russian troops into the region.

“Two weeks ago they arrived with a big technique. They set up bases in houses,” said a 42-year-old resident of Novovorontsovka near Kherson, who keeps in touch with his parents during the occupation..

Another 65-year-old resident who moved from the village of Maryino on June 11 said that at the beginning of the occupation, Russian troops were almost invisible. But before she left the village, they started digging trenches. The buildup of Russian forces has sparked concern that Russia may be preparing its own new offensive in the region.. But while Moscow may try to regain control of the villages that Ukrainian forces have been able to recapture in recent months, it lacks the funds for a large-scale operation.. But if Ukraine wants to launch a counteroffensive, then “the clock is ticking,” Mikhailov said.. The weather gets worse in October. And the movement of troops will become more complicated. Due to the quantitative advantage of the enemy, Ukraine also resorts to hybrid tactics. In Kherson, the majority of the population is hostile to the invaders, says Ukrainian journalist Konstantin Ryzhenko, who remains in the city.. Russian soldiers are no longer visible on the streets because they are afraid of attacks. Those who remained, including FSB officers, moved their bases to civilian areas, as well as to hospitals. Russians fear Ukrainian HIMARS strikes.

“It is enough for any of them to turn away for at least five seconds to be hanged or drowned,” Ryzhenko said..

Dmitry Alperovich, head of the Silverado Policy Accelerator analytical center, believes that after the recent attack on the air base in Crimea, the Russian army will find it difficult to keep Kherson.

“I think the Russians will leave Kherson very soon. It becomes impossible to hold. It is very difficult to provide forces there,” he said..

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In the event of a retreat from Kherson, Russia will have to forget about any of its intentions to seize the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast and reach Transnistria in Moldova. Some analysts point to Moscow's willingness to sacrifice its soldiers even in operations that do not make strategic sense.. So far, Ukraine has acted more cautiously..

“The Ukrainian army will never do something stupid like Russia, throwing people like cannon fodder into battle to satisfy the ambitions of their leaders. The issue is the price,” Sack said..

In the Kherson region on the left bank of the Dnieper, Russian forces are not so vulnerable. There lies the so-called " Control over this part will also allow the Kremlin to supply the peninsula with water.. Even though Ukraine has enough manpower to go on the offensive, without more weapons, it could be sending troops to a senseless death, Sack said.. Such an offensive would have little chance of success.. Some military units are already paying a heavy price.

All 6 months of the war, the 28th mechanized brigade fought on the southern front. She managed to stop the Russian offensive on Nikolaev.

The battle-hardened unit continues to liberate territories, approaching Kherson. It is better armed, and its fighters are among the best on the whole front.. However, Russian artillery shelling in the open steppe maimed and killed many soldiers.. On July 28, the commander of the 28th mechanized brigade, Vitaly Gulyaev, was killed in action.. And his comrades in arms want to avenge his death.

" We will take revenge,” said the battalion commander with the call sign “Evil”.